Ugh, everyone -- stay safe and fingers crossed! I think it's time for N95 masks for all.

I'm now annoyed with my formerly favorite site, covidactnow.org, for weighting the infection rate at least as high as the number of cases, so MA gets put back in the bad category, when our actual numbers are still quite low. They are growing faster than they should be, for sure.

I just want a good grade, which I know is stupid.

I think it's time for N95 masks for all.

I'm slightly paranoid, so when I started reading about how the Delta variant is hitting Israel, which has a higher vaccination rate than the US, I bought a box of KN95s. I feel like maybe I should buy more. I don't think cloth masks are going to cut it with this Delta variant.

A friend asked me why I was so worried, because she thought people can't get Covid twice. And prior to the Delta variant, it's true that there were very very few cases reported of a person getting Covid twice. But this variant might be different, and I don't want to learn the hard way. And I don't want to be an asymptomatic carrier, either.

Yeah, I just sent DH the most recent map where Florida is 100% red and where I am in New York is yellow or blue. I am not going to want to leave the house when I am down there next week! [link]

Timelies all!

Been busy at work lately. Doesn't help that there seems to be at least one person out every day.

It might also be this respiratory thing going around.

That's true. I'm not super worried since he started feeling better immediately after taking a cocktail of allergy meds when he hadn't been taking any previously, but we'll all feel better once he gets tested. I did run a self-test for my dad using the machine I brought with me and it came back negative, but I'm not sure how accurate it is.

I ordered a bunch of KN95s just now, since all I have at home are disposable surgical masks, cloth masks, and N95 respirators with valves.

I ordered a bunch of KN95s just now

After my last post, I did in fact order another box of 50 KN95s. They're mostly for Tim, because he's the one who works with other people, while I loaf with the kitty all day. He takes 2 meds that mildly suppress his immune system, and it's looking more and more likely that people who are immunosuppressed don't get the same level of protection from the mRNA vaccines that people with no immune suppression experience. (Again, does the fact that he had Covid mean he's way less likely to get it a second time? Maybe, but maybe not. We don't know shit about the Delta variant. Or, well, we're learning more every day, but we don't know enough at this point to say sure, buddy, go maskless at the same workplace that gave you Covid in January.)

There is a dress on eshakti overstock sale in my size, but it says for 3 inches taller than me. Do you think it will just be long or will the waist be off?

Here's what I've learned on my research into the Delta variant.

It's much more efficient at forming super cell clusters that work as virus making factories. These clusters are harder to penetrate by our antibodies before they spew virus through the system.

Consequently the viral load with Delta is much higher (I've read one account that said 1000x), and builds up more quickly (4 days of incubation instead of 6).

Also, it tends to produce more viral load in the upper respiratory tract, so it's causing more runny noses than the earlier version, and it's easier to transmit.

There is a documented case (proven by genetic tracing) where a casual bystander outside was infected by somebody walking past them. That was not the case with earlier variants which required much more exposure inside to work.

However, that instance was between two unvaccinated people.

Also, the Delta variant is not more deadly. It's just way more transmissible.

The Israel numbers are a bit of a distortion. The actual Breakthrough rate is about 15%, and even with that almost nobody who's vaccinated is going to hospital, or dying.

So if you're vaccinated you're still very safe from serious illness or death.

However, a 15% breakthrough rate is a significant increase over the 2-5% rate of the earlier variants. Even with the narrower window of a four day asymptomatic incubation period.

So now we're in a complicated public health space where (a) there are large communities which have low vaccination rates; (b) even vaccinated people can (in low but significant numbers) transmit the virus before they show any symptoms; (c) we still haven't vaccinated kids under 12; and (d) this new virus is vastly more transmissible.

The upshot is that it's going to tear through communities with low vax rates (no ICU beds currently available in Arkansas), and it's going to take its toll among vulnerable populations who are older or have underlying conditions.

So you have to do a complicated calculus if you have younger unvaccinated children, who want to see older unvaxxed relatives.

Your short takeaway is in two parts:

1) If you have a vaccination you are still highly protected from serious disease or death;

2) However, especially if you're in low vaccination community, you are more vulnerable to being an asymptomatic transmission agent (for a short four day window) which could affect older people or vulnerable you know.

So...it's really bad if you're not vaccinated, but it's still safe if you are. But there's a larger window where you could be a disease vector to vulnerable people.

My big concern at this point is that this virus is mutating so quickly and the longer people resist vaccination, the more likely we're going to get a virus which has a higher breakthrough rate and is more deadly.

In short: I fucking hate everybody who is not getting vaccinated and every school district and work place should mandate it.

So...it's really bad if you're not vaccinated, but it's still safe if you are. But there's a larger window where you could be a disease vector to vulnerable people.

That larger window really worries me. I'll do everything I can to reduce the risk of being a disease vector, which basically means going back to wearing a mask when I'm outside the house, which I can do.

My big concern at this point is that this virus is mutating so quickly and the longer people resist vaccination, the more likely we're going to get a virus which has a higher breakthrough rate and is more deadly.

I can't think about that too hard or I turn into the Angriest Dog In The World about it.