Here's what I've learned on my research into the Delta variant.

It's much more efficient at forming super cell clusters that work as virus making factories. These clusters are harder to penetrate by our antibodies before they spew virus through the system.

Consequently the viral load with Delta is much higher (I've read one account that said 1000x), and builds up more quickly (4 days of incubation instead of 6).

Also, it tends to produce more viral load in the upper respiratory tract, so it's causing more runny noses than the earlier version, and it's easier to transmit.

There is a documented case (proven by genetic tracing) where a casual bystander outside was infected by somebody walking past them. That was not the case with earlier variants which required much more exposure inside to work.

However, that instance was between two unvaccinated people.

Also, the Delta variant is not more deadly. It's just way more transmissible.

The Israel numbers are a bit of a distortion. The actual Breakthrough rate is about 15%, and even with that almost nobody who's vaccinated is going to hospital, or dying.

So if you're vaccinated you're still very safe from serious illness or death.

However, a 15% breakthrough rate is a significant increase over the 2-5% rate of the earlier variants. Even with the narrower window of a four day asymptomatic incubation period.

So now we're in a complicated public health space where (a) there are large communities which have low vaccination rates; (b) even vaccinated people can (in low but significant numbers) transmit the virus before they show any symptoms; (c) we still haven't vaccinated kids under 12; and (d) this new virus is vastly more transmissible.

The upshot is that it's going to tear through communities with low vax rates (no ICU beds currently available in Arkansas), and it's going to take its toll among vulnerable populations who are older or have underlying conditions.

So you have to do a complicated calculus if you have younger unvaccinated children, who want to see older unvaxxed relatives.

Your short takeaway is in two parts:

1) If you have a vaccination you are still highly protected from serious disease or death;

2) However, especially if you're in low vaccination community, you are more vulnerable to being an asymptomatic transmission agent (for a short four day window) which could affect older people or vulnerable you know.

So...it's really bad if you're not vaccinated, but it's still safe if you are. But there's a larger window where you could be a disease vector to vulnerable people.

My big concern at this point is that this virus is mutating so quickly and the longer people resist vaccination, the more likely we're going to get a virus which has a higher breakthrough rate and is more deadly.

In short: I fucking hate everybody who is not getting vaccinated and every school district and work place should mandate it.

So...it's really bad if you're not vaccinated, but it's still safe if you are. But there's a larger window where you could be a disease vector to vulnerable people.

That larger window really worries me. I'll do everything I can to reduce the risk of being a disease vector, which basically means going back to wearing a mask when I'm outside the house, which I can do.

My big concern at this point is that this virus is mutating so quickly and the longer people resist vaccination, the more likely we're going to get a virus which has a higher breakthrough rate and is more deadly.

I can't think about that too hard or I turn into the Angriest Dog In The World about it.

In short: I fucking hate everybody who is not getting vaccinated and every school district and work place should mandate it

Yes, this. I know 2 vaxxed bartenders who've gotten Covid in the past week (no one we hang out with). I also know of at least one bartender who is *not* vaccinated and does not wear a mask when they work. I feel like my head's going to explode every time I walk past that bar.

I’m so angry at people who won’t get vaccinated even now. Like, three billion doses have been given—at this point you’re not a guinea pig anymore!!

But I’m also bummed because it seems like my dream of dancing is going to stop as soon as it started.

Also I wanted to do some travel this fall! But a friend and her partner and I are looking at renting a house for December so that we are somewhere with more sunshine—even if we still can’t do stuff, we’d at least have that.

Technically at work we are supposed to wear masks if we aren't vaccinated. But no one checks and I've overheard people who weren't wearing masks say they weren't vaccinated.

I need to wear a mask at work. I am reluctant because of how much trouble I've had with the heat and humidity this year and wearing a mask doesn't make it any easier.

And I have swelling in my feet and legs again. I sat too much today and it's been hot and I 've been eating things that are too salty. And it's too hot to wear calf length compression socks during work. I really need to find some extra extra wide compression leg sleeve things. The calf length socks I have to get to fit my calves are way too big in the feet and don't actually compress my feet.

We had like 5 or 6 people get covid last year and none of it was traced to the store and it didn't spread through the store. One person did come to work with what she thought was a sinus infection but she left. According to the CDC she hadn't been around us long enough to warrant anyone being quarantined and no one else got sick. I think that is giving me a false sense of security.

But a friend and her partner and I are looking at renting a house for December so that we are somewhere with more sunshine—even if we still can’t do stuff, we’d at least have that.

I think that's how you have to finesse it. You can get together with smaller groups of trustworthy vaxxed people. But my hope that it would all be Done And Fixed this year will not be realized.

I've heard some public health people say that "You're either going to get vaccinated or you're going to get it." And I think that's right. Lots of humans just don't have the math or imagination to understand transmission, but the math doesn't give a shit whether you understand it.

One thing I keep going back to with the 1918 influenza pandemic is that it reached the most remote habitable places on earth. It got into the Yukon. It travels.

You will either get vaccinated or you will get it. And if you get it you might give it to somebody who won't survive it.

According to the CDC she hadn't been around us long enough to warrant anyone being quarantined and no one else got sick. I think that is giving me a false sense of security.

Last year that was true. With the Delta variant that's not applicable anymore. It has a much higher viral load and can reach the Minimum Infective Dose very quickly.

Just so you know how the landscape has changed.

You will either get vaccinated or you will get it.

I am feeling more pessimistic. I'm at "You're going to get it. Get vaccinated, to minimize how badly it hurts you. Do what you can to avoid spreading it yourself. It won't help, but you'll feel better about it."

I’m so angry at people who won’t get vaccinated even now. Like, three billion doses have been given—at this point you’re not a guinea pig anymore!!

One of my son's friends mocked him when he posted his vaccine card selfie Monday, saying in 20 years he would see the commercials. "Did you get the experimental Covid vaccine? You may be due compensation." He replied, cool beans, I'll take the money! When I mentioned to his GF that she wouldn't have to wear her mask all the time anymore, she said hell no she was never going to go without it inside again.

I'm not wearing my mask as much. When out and about I'll have it on my wrist and if there are children around, or people congestion, I'll slip it on. In this part of NY mostly I see children and elderly wearing them, most others don't.

With the way people travel these days - including the increase in air travel - any disease is going to spread, especially with the people who won't get vaccinated. And those who won't wear masks. I'm infuriated at the people on public transit who refuse to wear masks - they can get them for free on the bus and in the train stations, but they don't. There was a story by a doctor in ... Alabama? ... who said that she has young people coming in with COVID and just before she puts them on a ventilator they ask for the vaccine and she has to tell them it's too late.

I did see that a number of bars and restaurants will only seat people who are vaccinated inside, anyone who isn't has to sit outside. Which isn't a big problem now ... we'll see how it goes when it gets cold.