Gud, so relieved to hear she's on the mend. Hold firm that she gets serious counseling once she's can. I'm holding you and your family in my heart.
Overwhelming? How much more than whelming would that be exactly?
Anya ,'Touched'
Natter 74: Ready or Not
Off-topic discussion. Wanna talk about corsets, duct tape, butt kicking, or physics? This is the place. Detailed discussion of any current-season TV must be whitefonted.
Theodosia - Sep 28, 2016 3:38:30 am PDT #28438 of 30003
'we all walk this earth feeling we are frauds. The trick is to be grateful and hope the caper doesn't end any time soon"
Steph L. - Sep 28, 2016 3:41:11 am PDT #28439 of 30003
I look more rad than Lutheranism
Honestly, you guys, this is the first time in the campaign that I'm worried Clinton will lose. I need those post-debate polls to come out.
538 looks grim, the NYT site looks better, and the Princeton Consortium looks best. I still want to know why they differ so much. IIRC, Princeton Consortium is the one that billytea likes best, but I can't remember why.
Matt the Bruins fan - Sep 28, 2016 3:53:43 am PDT #28440 of 30003
"I remember when they eventually introduced that drug kingpin who murdered people and smuggled drugs inside snakes and I was like 'Finally. A normal person.'” —RahvinDragand
AOL has been a comfort to me, since it skews very Right Wing and it shows Clinton with a 76% chance of victory. Way more reassuring than 538, though I tend to consider Nate Silver the preeminent expert in the field.
Jesse - Sep 28, 2016 3:54:57 am PDT #28441 of 30003
Sometimes I trip on how happy we could be.
He's got to feel burned after saying Trump had no chance at the nomination for so long, though, right?
Zenkitty - Sep 28, 2016 4:27:51 am PDT #28442 of 30003
Every now and then, I think I might actually be a little odd.
Sophia, that's disturbing. It's like we're living in two parallel universes. If that's what conservatives are seeing when they look at the two of them, there's no chance of changing anyone's mind.
Laura, that backs up something I've thought might be true for a while.
Nobody thought Trump had a real shot at the candidacy! Nobody seriously thought a majority of Americans would choose a baboon.
billytea - Sep 28, 2016 4:35:00 am PDT #28443 of 30003
You were a wrong baby who grew up wrong. The wrong kind of wrong. It's better you hear it from a friend.
IIRC, Princeton Consortium is the one that billytea likes best, but I can't remember why.
It is! I look at a number of sites, but that's the one I like best. It actually had a slightly better performance than 538 in 2012 - it picked the Montana and North Dakota Senate races, which 538 missed - though frankly by the time the election rolls around, most aggregators are going to be pretty close to each other.
What I like about the site is that it adopts a simpler model. More complex models, like 538's, can be better at fitting past performance (you can always add more variables to get closer), but for forecasting, simpler is generally better. Complexities add noise. (One thing I like about 538 this year is that they now do three forecasts, which helps there.)
Another thing I like about PEC is that along with the Presidential forecast, it also provides Senate and House forecasts, and Obama's approval rating for good measure. Oh, and links for down-ticket donations, to help direct you to the most competitive Senate and House races (if one has a mind to).
In addition, the guy running that site is a neuroscientist by day, and I found his work on children's development to be useful when deciding whether to start Ryan at school early or late.
meara - Sep 28, 2016 4:37:25 am PDT #28444 of 30003
Billytea's explanation right there is part of why I heart buffistas. :)
Sophia Brooks - Sep 28, 2016 5:41:38 am PDT #28445 of 30003
Cats to become a rabbit should gather immediately now here
Sophia, that's disturbing. It's like we're living in two parallel universes. If that's what conservatives are seeing when they look at the two of them, there's no chance of changing anyone's mind.
YEah- it is discouraging. This person generally has an open, logical mind, but he is using his logic illogically. Or something.
He has a point by point refutation of Clinton's ecxonmic plan, and thinks when she says "We have a different how we make investments that will actually produce jobs and rising incomes."
SHe is saying: " she opposes private investment and believes the government should absorb 100% of private entrepreneurial investment money as a tax, and then the government should determine which businesses receive that investment money.. That's literally what she's saying}
Connie Neil - Sep 28, 2016 5:46:45 am PDT #28446 of 30003
brillig
538 put up a note yesterday saying it could be two or three days before the debate is factored into their model. They wait for multiple polls to show similar findings before considering it a trend, otherwise they treat it as an outlier.
The right-wing news people keep focusing on "I don't think Hillary persuaded any Trump voters to join her camp," which I hear as "The people who think she's the devil incarnate continue to think she reigns in hell, but we won't say anything about the people who haven't decided yet, because we're very worried about that."
Steph L. - Sep 28, 2016 5:52:14 am PDT #28447 of 30003
I look more rad than Lutheranism
The right-wing news people keep focusing on "I don't think Hillary persuaded any Trump voters to join her camp," which I hear as "The people who think she's the devil incarnate continue to think she reigns in hell, but we won't say anything about the people who haven't decided yet, because we're very worried about that."
I hope the right wing has good reason to be worried about the undecideds. I get so angry when I think about third-party voters in this election that I can't think about that for too long.