Sophia, that's disturbing. It's like we're living in two parallel universes. If that's what conservatives are seeing when they look at the two of them, there's no chance of changing anyone's mind.

Laura, that backs up something I've thought might be true for a while.

Nobody thought Trump had a real shot at the candidacy! Nobody seriously thought a majority of Americans would choose a baboon.

IIRC, Princeton Consortium is the one that billytea likes best, but I can't remember why.

It is! I look at a number of sites, but that's the one I like best. It actually had a slightly better performance than 538 in 2012 - it picked the Montana and North Dakota Senate races, which 538 missed - though frankly by the time the election rolls around, most aggregators are going to be pretty close to each other.

What I like about the site is that it adopts a simpler model. More complex models, like 538's, can be better at fitting past performance (you can always add more variables to get closer), but for forecasting, simpler is generally better. Complexities add noise. (One thing I like about 538 this year is that they now do three forecasts, which helps there.)

Another thing I like about PEC is that along with the Presidential forecast, it also provides Senate and House forecasts, and Obama's approval rating for good measure. Oh, and links for down-ticket donations, to help direct you to the most competitive Senate and House races (if one has a mind to).

In addition, the guy running that site is a neuroscientist by day, and I found his work on children's development to be useful when deciding whether to start Ryan at school early or late.

Billytea's explanation right there is part of why I heart buffistas. :)

Sophia, that's disturbing. It's like we're living in two parallel universes. If that's what conservatives are seeing when they look at the two of them, there's no chance of changing anyone's mind.

YEah- it is discouraging. This person generally has an open, logical mind, but he is using his logic illogically. Or something.

He has a point by point refutation of Clinton's ecxonmic plan, and thinks when she says "We have a different how we make investments that will actually produce jobs and rising incomes."

SHe is saying: " she opposes private investment and believes the government should absorb 100% of private entrepreneurial investment money as a tax, and then the government should determine which businesses receive that investment money.. That's literally what she's saying}

538 put up a note yesterday saying it could be two or three days before the debate is factored into their model. They wait for multiple polls to show similar findings before considering it a trend, otherwise they treat it as an outlier.

The right-wing news people keep focusing on "I don't think Hillary persuaded any Trump voters to join her camp," which I hear as "The people who think she's the devil incarnate continue to think she reigns in hell, but we won't say anything about the people who haven't decided yet, because we're very worried about that."

The right-wing news people keep focusing on "I don't think Hillary persuaded any Trump voters to join her camp," which I hear as "The people who think she's the devil incarnate continue to think she reigns in hell, but we won't say anything about the people who haven't decided yet, because we're very worried about that."

I hope the right wing has good reason to be worried about the undecideds. I get so angry when I think about third-party voters in this election that I can't think about that for too long.

Do people know you can sign up to drive people to the polls?

[link]

Also GOTV calling can, I think, be done from your home for Hillary.

Getting dems to the polls will win the election. Voter turnout is key.

Well, in an election where I could live with either of the main candidates (like in 2008, assuming McCain's health had held up to the stress of the Presidency), I might be tempted to vote Green Party to send a message. However, the message I want to send this election is "1933 Germany should not be looked at as a how-to guide!"

Yeah, I've been thinking of volunteering to drive people once I finish relocating.

I'm voting by mail this year--hopefully, I think I signed up correctly--because I'm going to be at a new address at the beginning of November and I don't know what the time frame is for changing registration information. It may not matter in Utah, but it just might.