Skipping (there, this is one habit I totally don't need to carry with me to next year!) and poking head for just a minute, before I have to leave early for my parents' place for the holiday (my poor mom doesn't feel so well and she asked me to arrive as early as possible to help her with some of the preparations), to wish a as-good-as-possible Monday, a good week, a happy new year to those who get a new year Monday evening, and just general all-good-things and I-miss-you-guys all around.
Oh, and according to the Buffista Calendar, Tuesday, the 30th, will be Alibelle's birthday. I will not be in front of a computer then, so early special wishes for her, as well!
Can I just say "Jewistas" cracked my shit UP?! In a good way.
Heh.
Can I just say "Jewistas" cracked my shit UP?! In a good way.
They're a wryly witty people.
Congratulations to sarameg's Dr. Bro.!
Happy New Year to Jewistas!
Good Yontiff for all!
The sun isn't up yet. I suppose I should get used to this at this time of year, but FEH.
They're a wryly witty people.
Awwwww.
At home. Nilly, if you'll see this, happy new year and health~ma to your mom and getting-everything-in-time-for-holiday~ma to you.
Happy New Year!
Can I just say "Jewistas" cracked my shit UP?! In a good way.
They're a wryly witty people.
Indeed-- my friend Eileen, when explaining her utter lack of sense of direction, will look at you with these huge blue eyes and say, "But it's hereditary. Think about it. Forty years-- very small desert."
Man, I'm tired. I had probably the worst night of sleep ever -- wide awake at 4:30, which never happens to me. Then to work early because there's a big meeting that I'm not a part of. And I didn't do any work over the weekend like I meant to, so I'm already behind.
Good times.
Man, I'm tired.
Me too. Why am I here? I should be sleeping....
ION, The disappearing Bradley effect
A hot topic among polling nerds is the “Bradley effect,” which occurs when a non-white (usually black) candidate falls short of opinion polls on Election Day when he/she runs against a white candidate. For this reason it has been suggested that support for Obama might be overstated - a hidden bonus for John McCain. Now comes a large-scale empirical study (in preprint form) by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins. He finds that since the mid-1990s, the Bradley effect has disappeared. His paper is a must-read.
...
Polls did show a significant Bradley/Wilder effect through the early 1990s, which includes the period when Bradley and Wilder were running for office. However, Hopkins notes that the effect then went away in races from 1996 onward. To quote the study: “Before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points.”
