omg, I love PBS, but I have seen this dog documentary 5 or 6 times now!

This is in'eresting:

Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote. Young voters are becoming harder and harder to reach. They are in the habit of screening their phone calls. More problematically still, a great number of them (roughly 50 percent of voters under 30) rely principally or exclusively on cellphones, which most pollsters (including Selzer) will not call.

...

Moreover, many of the pollsters that do weight by age group may be doing so -- to her mind -- in the wrong way. Specifically, they tend to use the 2004 election as a benchmark, when 17 percent were aged 18-29. Selzer uses census bureau data as her benchmark instead; among American adults aged 18 and up, about 22 percent age 18-29. This might not seem like a large difference, but given Obama's strong performance among young voters, it makes a difference of about 1.5 points in the net Obama-McCain margin.

...

There is nothing particularly difficult about this algebra. But that may not be preventing some pollsters from getting it wrong. They may fix the youth voter figure at 17%, regardless of what their turnout model says (and ignoring the fact that youth voter turnout increased by 52% as a share of the Democratic primary electorate).

This site estimates that the cellphone effect could be about 2-3 points.

That's still not enough to outweigh the bubba effect.

That's still not enough to outweigh the bubba effect.

What's the bubba effect?

The bubba effect is basically the people dumb enough to think a black man can't or shouldn't be president, but not dumb enough to admit that to a pollster.

ETA: Many people estimate that Obama needs to be ahead in the polls by 6% or so to make sure he's "really" ahead.

I love Billie Piper and find her to be an extremely attractive young woman, and not a horrible actress. But WHY is she always in period pieces (except for Dr. Who). She is not right. (I am still watching PBS)

The bubba effect is basically the people dumb enough to think a black man can't or shouldn't be president, but not dumb enough to admit that to a pollster.

I thought that was called the Bradley effect.

The bubba effect is basically the people dumb enough to think a black man can't or shouldn't be president, but not dumb enough to admit that to a pollster.

So it's people who (a) will choose based on race, and (b) feel bad enough about it that they'd lie to a pollster about it? I must admit, my first thought is that if I didn't want to vote for Obama, I'd have no problem telling a pollster. I'd just lie about the reason.

Anyway. Was there a bubba effect in the primaries?

Wait, I've found an analysis thereof. [link] Apparently if anything there was a reverse Bradley effect, except possibly in the Northeast. It seems the Bradley effect was significant in the 80s and 90s, but it's no longer such an issue.

Well, sorta, I think the Bradley Effect is people that want the pollster to think they'll vote for the black guy but they don't. But I would distrust any political sentence from me that doesn't start "Keith Olbermann says..." That said, in the Buffista admin, I would *love* to work in the Ministry of Kill The Stupid People.