FWIW, I got my financial advisor's Election Scenarios newsletter. This is not put together by him personally but UBS (Swiss Bank).
It's weird seeing things in print like "A blue wave would be the worst case scenario for equity markets..."
So this is definitely Advisors to the King speaking directly to the Wealthy Fuckers.
Their listed probabilities are:
Blue Wave: 5%
Harris wins with divided Congress: 45%
Red Wave: 35%
Trump wins with divided Congress: 15%
I wonder if they had a Blue Wave in 2020 at such low probability. They must have because nobody expected the Dems to get two senators out of Georgia.
I don't think a Red Wave is that probable, but they think that's much more likely than Trump winning with a divided congress.
So my bellweather now is just going to be whether we get shitty numbers from Michigan and Wisconsin early on as happened in 2016.
If we're holding steady there, then Trump won't get a Red Wave and then the Harris with Divided Congress scenario is three times more likely than Trump with Divided Congress.
Who knows what is going on under the hood in their analysis, but this is what Billionaires are paying for.
A lot of analysts have Harris winning a squeaker, but I think she will do as well as Biden and maybe better if she gets NC.