There is one poll showing Iowa flipping blue. Nad apparently the woman who does the poll, Ann Selzer is really accurate.

With Mac taking residence in the living room while he recuperates, I have re-set up the second tv in the small upstairs room. This is the room where things were tossed and where the stuff I never really unpacked lives. It’s a mess.

So while I deep clean his room and try to make it more functional for him, I’m swapping out my summer for winter clothes and I’m pulling out a bunch of clothes to get rid of. Now I have to decide if I have the patience to try and get some money for the better items.

Way to go Lisa!

(((Amy Parker)))

Yay vaccines.

Health ma to M.

I’m sure I’m missing stuff.

There is one poll showing Iowa flipping blue. Nad apparently the woman who does the poll, Ann Selzer is really accurate.

I've posted a lot of stuff on her and her poll on FB today.

There's a pretty clear timeline where women voters, especially older women voters, have broken hard for Harris after the abortion ban went into place in Iowa in late summer.

Another tell tale about Iowa is that they have four congressional districts, all of them currently Republican. But the current numbers show that Dem challengers in two of the districts are up, one of them by a significant margin.

One thing Ann Selzer does not do is weigh her poll against 2020 voting patterns, so her numbers do not reflect the "poll herding" trend which has emerged this year which - I think - has overestimated Trump's numbers.

We shall see. Politico also reported that the big mega poll technique which has been in use in the UK (and correctly predicted Theresa May's ouster and Brexit), shows Harris taking a narrow win.

I'm taking nothing for granted but I'm seeing a lot of signs that bolster my optimism about her chances. Like the crowd size and enthusiasm for Kamala has been very high and steady. Last week, her speech at the Ellipse in DC drew 75,000 people. There's video of Trump playing to a stadium in NC a couple days ago that's one third empty and people walking out.

Also the early voting numbers have been through the roof, with lots of young people lining up.

(Obligatory channeling of my boss and "Ground game, ground game, ground game.") Good job, Lisa. Karl, so much drama over a little prick. Right?

cereal: Amy P., tried to say I was sorry for your loss before, but PC wigged out. This should work...

I watched a little of Trump's speech. He was going on and on about African American jobs and how undocumented workers (or maybe just immigrants I don't know) take African American jobs. I guess he thinks if he says that instead of Black jobs it wouldn't be an issue ... although then he tried to criticize the job numbers that the government released or didn't and kind of ended up calling them good ..I think. I don't know anyone can follow what he says.

All day we’ve been saying we’re “nauseously optimistic.”

Amy, I'm very sorry to read about your loss.

American Buffistas, I'm also thinking about you and how stressful it is right now. Best outcome~ma. Democracy is apparently fragile, I hope you get to keep as much as yours as possible.

(I wish I had good news to report on from here. Unfortunately, this government is still in place, so nothing much changed).

And I'm worried for people abroad too! You think Trump is going to continue to send arms to Ukraine? Not to mention Israel and what happens when our Administration is doing nothing to put the brakes on Netanyahu.

'Nauseously optimistic' sounds right.

I'm feeling anxious. My gut is telling me Trump is going to win, which is where my gut was in 2016.