There is one poll showing Iowa flipping blue. Nad apparently the woman who does the poll, Ann Selzer is really accurate.

I've posted a lot of stuff on her and her poll on FB today.

There's a pretty clear timeline where women voters, especially older women voters, have broken hard for Harris after the abortion ban went into place in Iowa in late summer.

Another tell tale about Iowa is that they have four congressional districts, all of them currently Republican. But the current numbers show that Dem challengers in two of the districts are up, one of them by a significant margin.

One thing Ann Selzer does not do is weigh her poll against 2020 voting patterns, so her numbers do not reflect the "poll herding" trend which has emerged this year which - I think - has overestimated Trump's numbers.

We shall see. Politico also reported that the big mega poll technique which has been in use in the UK (and correctly predicted Theresa May's ouster and Brexit), shows Harris taking a narrow win.

I'm taking nothing for granted but I'm seeing a lot of signs that bolster my optimism about her chances. Like the crowd size and enthusiasm for Kamala has been very high and steady. Last week, her speech at the Ellipse in DC drew 75,000 people. There's video of Trump playing to a stadium in NC a couple days ago that's one third empty and people walking out.

Also the early voting numbers have been through the roof, with lots of young people lining up.

(Obligatory channeling of my boss and "Ground game, ground game, ground game.") Good job, Lisa. Karl, so much drama over a little prick. Right?

cereal: Amy P., tried to say I was sorry for your loss before, but PC wigged out. This should work...

I watched a little of Trump's speech. He was going on and on about African American jobs and how undocumented workers (or maybe just immigrants I don't know) take African American jobs. I guess he thinks if he says that instead of Black jobs it wouldn't be an issue ... although then he tried to criticize the job numbers that the government released or didn't and kind of ended up calling them good ..I think. I don't know anyone can follow what he says.

All day we’ve been saying we’re “nauseously optimistic.”

Amy, I'm very sorry to read about your loss.

American Buffistas, I'm also thinking about you and how stressful it is right now. Best outcome~ma. Democracy is apparently fragile, I hope you get to keep as much as yours as possible.

(I wish I had good news to report on from here. Unfortunately, this government is still in place, so nothing much changed).

And I'm worried for people abroad too! You think Trump is going to continue to send arms to Ukraine? Not to mention Israel and what happens when our Administration is doing nothing to put the brakes on Netanyahu.

'Nauseously optimistic' sounds right.

I'm feeling anxious. My gut is telling me Trump is going to win, which is where my gut was in 2016.

My gut isn't telling me shit, and I'm mindfully trying to let go of trying to predict. I'm going more and more into news blackout mode to preserve my ability to function.

I'm also thinking more and more of doing a digital nomad thing (regardless of election outcome) for a year or two in the next couple of years and have started researching. ETA: DH seems amenable, which is convenient.

I am so afraid to feel any optimism, and after 2016 I've avoided looking too hard at any predictions/polls/clairvoyant octopods in case I accidentally see some good news. This is an incredibly normal and healthy way to feel for 8 years hashtag everything is fine.

I will be spending tomorrow evening at a friend's house watching the returns come in while we stress-eat cheese and crackers together and listen to our 8th graders make snarky commentary in the background. I have already sent this link to my boss in case coming to work Nov 6 turns out to be a no-go.