Emmett's watching Deal or No Deal and I'm having a hard time explaining risk calculation to him.
"But she's still got a one in three chance!"
"No, that's not how you calculate the decision. You calculate all the odd possibilities versus the reward, and at a certain point the odds don't favor what you're risking. It's not a coin flip. There's an actual value you can place on the risk/reward calculation and she blew it when she didn't take the $188,000 offer after the million came off the board. I guarantee you that she will walk away with far less than that amount now."
"But she's still got a chance to get the $500,000!"
"No! You don't get it. She's not making a decision based on actual calculations. She's entered a fallacy of thinking she's lucky or intuitive. She made a bunch of lucky/fortuitous guesses early, which tipped the odds in her favor. The guy in the booth is not pulling his offers out of his ass. He's running a calculation. He's measuring the risk for each choice. She needs to do that too and failed to do that when she said No Deal on the offer at $188,000."
Anyway. She still wound up with $83,000.
Tom - a cruise. Or, I know a lovely group in Ethiopia that you could volunteer with.
I'll be on a cruise ship for 9/11, and I'm sort of hoping it's NOT one with primarily American passengers so it will be as little of a big deal as possible. I feel like every Australian holiday that popped up while I was on my last ship was a MUCH bigger deal because if we didn't go all out, the Aussies freaked out that the American ship wasn't catering to its passengers enough.
no no no DISNEY WORLD!!! or you could go walking the Appalachian Trail.
Hec, The Monty Hall Problem continues to stymie some folks.
Okay, North Carolina-istas: what is up with that wildfire in Pender County?
signed,
It's All About Me And My Upcoming Vacation
t edit
I'm really confused reading the news reports -- several say the fire is centered up near Cary, but others talk about it being down near Hampstead.
Can you go "walking the Appalachian Trail" alone?
There are currently three fires burning in NC, all near the coast. I believe the Pender County one is the largest, and all of them are in wildlife conservation areas. The smoke has engulfed the Triangle (where I live) 200 miles away. I've already had to pull out my asthma inhaler, and my town has Facebooked, tweeted, and robocalled a message begging people to stop calling 911 to report the (200 miles distant) fire. Unless they see actual flames, in which case our fire department can, you know, actually do something about it.
I really have trouble getting my head around the Monty Hall problem. I kinda of follow the Math. But my intuition keeps screaming, "no the odds haven't changed" even though the point is that we now now have new information to recalculate. My intuition is wrong wrong wrong, and the math is right, but still really hard to get.
Oh unrelated: Part of my recipe for making welsh rabbit is to use the worst beer I can get. Have not made it for a while. At one point some stores offered a generic beer that worked well. In Texas I used to buy Lone Star for the purpose. Now I'm in Washington State. What is fairly widely available really awful dark beer. The worse the beer used as a base the better the cheese sauce tastes. So looking for the worst beer, not the cheapest. Willing to pay a bit more if I can get lower quality. Suggestions?
And Cali the above was x-posted with yours. Sorry to hear about the fires. Can you get away if it gets too hard on your lungs?
