Hec, The Monty Hall Problem continues to stymie some folks.

Okay, North Carolina-istas: what is up with that wildfire in Pender County?

signed,
It's All About Me And My Upcoming Vacation

t edit I'm really confused reading the news reports -- several say the fire is centered up near Cary, but others talk about it being down near Hampstead.

Can you go "walking the Appalachian Trail" alone?

There are currently three fires burning in NC, all near the coast. I believe the Pender County one is the largest, and all of them are in wildlife conservation areas. The smoke has engulfed the Triangle (where I live) 200 miles away. I've already had to pull out my asthma inhaler, and my town has Facebooked, tweeted, and robocalled a message begging people to stop calling 911 to report the (200 miles distant) fire. Unless they see actual flames, in which case our fire department can, you know, actually do something about it.

I really have trouble getting my head around the Monty Hall problem. I kinda of follow the Math. But my intuition keeps screaming, "no the odds haven't changed" even though the point is that we now now have new information to recalculate. My intuition is wrong wrong wrong, and the math is right, but still really hard to get.

Oh unrelated: Part of my recipe for making welsh rabbit is to use the worst beer I can get. Have not made it for a while. At one point some stores offered a generic beer that worked well. In Texas I used to buy Lone Star for the purpose. Now I'm in Washington State. What is fairly widely available really awful dark beer. The worse the beer used as a base the better the cheese sauce tastes. So looking for the worst beer, not the cheapest. Willing to pay a bit more if I can get lower quality. Suggestions?

And Cali the above was x-posted with yours. Sorry to hear about the fires. Can you get away if it gets too hard on your lungs?

Depends on how you define "worst" in a beer, no?

Does that mean thin and flavorless? Or Dark and bitter? Or very hoppy?

So, it there are three choices you change if there are only two you stay with what you've got?

Is that right?

(In the midst of a sudden rain storm here.)

I always said that if I were on Deal or No Deal, the first offer I got for 6 figures, I would be out of there without a second thought.

I would not be a fun contestant. "peace out Howie!"

They clearly prescreen for risk takers.

Sorry to hear about the fires. Can you get away if it gets too hard on your lungs?

Thanks, Typo Boy. I have tomorrow off, so I could drive elsewhere after work if I need to. The winds are forecast to change tonight, though, and the smoke should clear up in my area then.