I really have trouble getting my head around the Monty Hall problem. I kinda of follow the Math. But my intuition keeps screaming, "no the odds haven't changed" even though the point is that we now now have new information to recalculate. My intuition is wrong wrong wrong, and the math is right, but still really hard to get.

Oh unrelated: Part of my recipe for making welsh rabbit is to use the worst beer I can get. Have not made it for a while. At one point some stores offered a generic beer that worked well. In Texas I used to buy Lone Star for the purpose. Now I'm in Washington State. What is fairly widely available really awful dark beer. The worse the beer used as a base the better the cheese sauce tastes. So looking for the worst beer, not the cheapest. Willing to pay a bit more if I can get lower quality. Suggestions?

And Cali the above was x-posted with yours. Sorry to hear about the fires. Can you get away if it gets too hard on your lungs?

Depends on how you define "worst" in a beer, no?

Does that mean thin and flavorless? Or Dark and bitter? Or very hoppy?

So, it there are three choices you change if there are only two you stay with what you've got?

Is that right?

(In the midst of a sudden rain storm here.)

I always said that if I were on Deal or No Deal, the first offer I got for 6 figures, I would be out of there without a second thought.

I would not be a fun contestant. "peace out Howie!"

They clearly prescreen for risk takers.

Sorry to hear about the fires. Can you get away if it gets too hard on your lungs?

Thanks, Typo Boy. I have tomorrow off, so I could drive elsewhere after work if I need to. The winds are forecast to change tonight, though, and the smoke should clear up in my area then.

I don't know that the odds change. The stakes change.

I doubt that Atlanta is going to be a hotbed of 9/11 commemoration.

Tonight's dinner is already made: Homemade beef stew.

1/2 purple onion, sweated in 2 T of butter. Then added 1lb of stew meat, floured. Browned that. Added 1/2 cup of red wine. Then added 16 oz of beef stock, coarse sea salt and coarsely group black pepper. Added a bag of frozen, sliced carrots and let simmer while I chopped up 4 medium, scrubbed potatoes. Added them to the pot and left to simmer.

There are currently three fires burning in NC, all near the coast.

Okay, that makes more sense. Although I swear one article made it sound like the actual fire was in Cary.

Really dark and bitter rather than hoppy or thin. Put it this way. The ideal beer for Welsh Rabbit is stale beer. But if you don't have beer around the house long enough to go stale then poor quality (in the sense of dark & bitter and not in a good way) is a really good second best.