Some gloom-n-doom from 60 Minutes: A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon?

Interesting and depressing article. My main question is, why did so many people assume that housing prices would just keep going up?

The NYC snow has calmed down a bit, but when it started those were the biggest "flakes" I have ever seen. It looked like cotton balls falling from the sky! Now it just looks like snow.

Giant snowflakes.

My main question is, why did so many people assume that housing prices would just keep going up?

Because since WWII, while housing prices might have gone down in certain regions of the country, housing prices nationwide never have gone down.

My main question is, why did so many people assume that housing prices would just keep going up?

Irrational exuberence.

It all reminds me of the dotcom bust and all the articles postulating that it was a new and unprecented economy which would never come down.

I mean they've been talking about a "real estate bubble" for about five years. From what I've learned just from this latest crash, it was not hard to see or anticipate how this would all go down. You keep lowering interest rates and overextend credit and this is what happens.

I think our biggest problem to face with Econ 101 is going to be the national debt. They just can't go on as they've gone on, and if China pulled in all its vouchers then there'd really be a problem.

Frankly, the mortgage crisis is as nothing compared to what could happen in that eventuality.

Of course, the Chinese would not benefit from that scenario so it's less likely. And yet, it's not hard to imagine circumstances where they might think it beneficial to drop an economic bomb. I can kind of see it as an economic nuclear threat, built around the gamble that China could recover more quickly and dominate the market the way the U.S. has. Five to ten years of economic mayhem and they come out on top. That sort of thing.

Because since WWII, while housing prices might have gone down in certain regions of the country, housing prices nationwide never have gone down.

Yeah, I get that, but housing prices since 2000-ish suddenly were rising far faster than before (when they pretty much followed inflation, right?) Shouldn't a lot of people at least considered the possibility that housing was in the midst of a bubble?

I've been curious about the various ratings agencies that gave AAA ratings to CDOs of subprime mortgages. It turns out that one of these ratings agencies had modeling software for CDOs that couldn't even accept a negative number for the appreciation of property values. IOW, their models were physically incapable of evaluating falling housing prices.

It all reminds me of the dotcom bust and all the articles postulating that it was a new and unprecented economy which would never come down.

I think it's this. The "this time it's different" syndrome.

Of course, the Chinese would not benefit from that scenario so it's less likely.

I think I'll start whimpering anyway.

Irrational exuberence.

Yeah. I'm just surprised that maybe 99% in the real estate/mortgage/financial businesses succumbed to it.

It all reminds me of the dotcom bust and all the articles postulating that it was a new and unprecented economy which would never come down.

Yeah, I remember all that. It seems as if the media was just in the business of telling people what they wanted to hear. (Dow 36,000?)

Yeah. I'm just surprised that maybe 99% in the real estate/mortgage/financial businesses succumbed to it.

But, they made a lot of money in the short term. Same for the law firms that have gone under in SF. The ones that went down were the ones raking it in on the short term economic climate, and then got hammered when the winds shifted.

So the motive is the same as it ever was: profit.

Or as erika will tell ya, crime greed makes you stupid.

wondering how they work and maybe embarrass him by doing that.

If you gaze at them with a look of deep interest, then politely ask him "Do you have a cable system or something based on electronics?", you may be able to have matter-of-fact discussion of how it all works. He may think they're as cool as you do. The gushing "Oh, it's so wonderful you have something to replace your hands!" thing treads a little close to icky.

So the motive is the same as it ever was: profit.

I remember last year when someone called in for help with our program, and he said, "It's been a damned slow year, we need a hurricane, I only got into this contractor thing because my brother-in-law said we could make a killing off Katrina."

Yeah, that's somebody who's concerned about his quality of work.

"It's been a damned slow year, we need a hurricane, I only got into this contractor thing because my brother-in-law said we could make a killing off Katrina."

Reminds me of this Onion article: Cranberry Juice Industry Hoping 2009 A Big Year For Urinary Tract Infections