If McCain had campaigned the way Obama did, it would have been a close race.

Up until the economic downturn, it was a close race. I really think being linked to the mortgage/Wall Street crisis did him a lot more damage than picking Palin as a running mate, since she seems to have drawn nearly as many people out from under rocks and bridgesof revivals and survivalist compounds as she drove leftwards of the middle.

Up until the economic downturn, it was a close race. I really think being linked to the mortgage/Wall Street crisis did him a lot more damage than picking Palin as a running mate

A somewhat contrary view: Did Lehman Kill McCain?

That's the partisan Republican spin on the dreadful McCain campaign. Krauthammer makes the case this morning:

The patient was fatally stricken on Sept. 15 -- caught in the rubble when the roof fell in (at Lehman Brothers, according to the police report) -- although he did linger until his final, rather quiet demise on Nov. 4. In the excitement and decisiveness of Barack Obama's victory, we forget that in the first weeks of September, John McCain was actually ahead. Then Lehman collapsed, and the financial system went off a cliff.

The data do not support this thesis. McCain was behind for almost all of the campaign, apart from a brief post-convention bump. Here's the Pollster graph for the period in question:

...

You will note that McCain's slide began September 7, a week before Krauthammer claims; and Obama's re-surge began September 9. Pollster's polls are smoothed out, but the turning point was well before Lehman, and correlates with the disastrous Couric Gibson-Palin interview.

All along, the clear line for McCain was always down, and only the convention period - when people were still under the temporary illusion that Sarah Palin was a credible, rather than a farcical, candidate - gave McCain any hope.

You guys, he's here again. All this fascinating stuff with the transition and the cabinet picks and the glavin, it's going down right here.

The only question is how many excuses I can come up with to wander through the lobby before someone (like, say, secret service) notices.

You guys, he's here again. All this fascinating stuff with the transition and the cabinet picks and the glavin, it's going down right here.

Oh man.

Can you feel the extra hope in the building?

Is it wrong of me to be wallowing in the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the neocons? I almost feel guilty. Almost.

Is it wrong of me to be wallowing in the wailing and gnashing of teeth of the neocons? I almost feel guilty. Almost.

I don't feel guilty at all. I'm munching on popcorn and watching in fascination.

It's funny - you can see people like Kristol trying to cover their asses (he was one of the biggest promoters of Palin) and/or trying to maintain their viability in the job/media market.

Brenda, can I meet you for lunch on... uh, Thursday is my next free day?

Lots of people are pegging Lehman Bros collapse as the point where the McCain campaign started losing, but I heard someone point out that his numbers started dropping 4 days earlier after Palin's Katie Couric interview.

Glam, did you make it to the demonstration at the Mormon temple?

I did. While it was moving to see so many people demonstrating, it felt like the message got a bit diluted. It seemed more about bashing the Mormons than about equal rights. I mean, I'm pissed with the Mormons as well and thought rallying in front of their temple was a great move. I just think we could have left the Mormon connection at that.

In my mind - rainbows are all converging on brenda's building and a slight glow of optimism is shining from the windows.