Hey, quick question: electoral-vote.com has Obama narrowly ahead in Virginia. By my count the last time the Dems on VA was in '64. Is that right? Do people think he's a real chance there?

John McCain suspends campaigning to work on economy, requests postponing Friday debate; asks Obama do the same.

I think he just lost. He's insulted the electorate. Sure, there will be wingnuts who praise his decisiveness, his keen sense of priorities and his mavericky ways, but he turned his back on the electorate. They won't forgive him that.

Really? She has been a smash success politically.

I don't think she has. The Christian Right has been awed that someone managed to find a dog whistle with a pulse, but from what I've seen of the polling, moderate women are cold on her, and she's galvanised Democrats as much as she has Repubs. IIRC, before the RNC, only about 70% of registered Democrats said they were voting for Obama. Now it's something like 90%. She means McCain will win Utah and Alabama by bigger margins, but she does nothing to win the swing states.

Seriously, if we're doing that, I can think of many more action movie presidents that would be a better choice.

I'm going with that cartoon president from the 70s or 80s who was a secret superhero.

What's the last thing that made you smile?

Wallybee. She normally goes to bed before me, and when I come to bed too, she'll grab my hand. I also enjoy the glee with which she plays the Communists in Twilight Struggle. (She was a Young Pioneer. She has form.)

I think he just lost.

I agree. This week has been bad for him all around, but today he's seriously tanked.

Don't you think he looks tired?

(Re: Virginia, I'm certainly not about to call it, but the polls have been pointing to it being a possibility for months now.)

Yeah, Virginia is definitely in play. Not only are people getting fed up with Republicans, but the demographics are changing too, especially in northern VA.

Oh, and as for Palin, based on the completely neutral and representative sample of my mother-in-law, even loyalist republican fundamentalist white women who vote on social conservative issues don't think very much of her.

She's losing a lot more votes for McCain than she's gaining at this point -- and if his candidacy falling apart proves that pandering to the my-MIL demographic isn't the strategy it was thought to be, then yay!

The last thing that made me smile? Noah playing peekaboo. K bringing me a cupcake. Gracie giving me a big grin. My students writing scathing and hilarious responses in rhyming couplet to Andrew Marvell. Running into another NICU mom I had lost contact with.

Yeah, Virginia is definitely in play. Not only are people getting fed up with Republicans, but the demographics are changing too, especially in northern VA.

Cool. The demographics always interest me. I remember early in Bush's first term, there were suggestions that the growing populations of the southern and western states were setting the stage for continued Republican dominance. The pundits failed to take into account that the influx of people weren't as conservative as the locals. Now Colorado is a swing state, as is Virginia, apparently, and North Carolina's starting to budge.

Wanna see Gracie smile.

Will have to settle this week for seeing my nephews, including the now mobile Mr. T.

North Carolina's starting to budge.

I'm hoping it's more than a budge, although it's clearly less of a chance than Virginia.

Don't you think he looks tired?

Hee! Thanks, Doctor!

t /hopes it really was a reference

She's losing a lot more votes for McCain than she's gaining at this point -- and if his candidacy falling apart proves that pandering to the my-MIL demographic isn't the strategy it was thought to be, then yay!

The Economist has had articles suggesting that although Rove's polarising politics won Bush two terms, without the urgency that 9/11 granted their fearmongering, it's a strategy that makes them more and more beholden to a rump that frankly alienates a lot of moderates. Galvanising your base looks like a high-risk strategy when it lets your opponent take the centre. (It also noted that candidates generally move out to the extremes to win the nomination, then back to the centre to contest the presidency. McCain's been doing it all arse-backwards.)