The NYTimes has an online "Let's Make a Deal" game to illustrate what's called "The Monty Hall Problem."

That's the kind of thing that can be explained to me a million times in a million different ways and I just won't understand. My brain is broken.

I got woefully behind in the previous Natter and always feel guilty for skimming. so i'm just going to jump into the new thread(which i've read). so umm...HI!!

life is kinda funny sometimes. i'm kinda low on cashflow until payday on the 15 and was imagining many days of having to eat cheese crackers for lunch, but the past two days i've gotten free lunch! score!! it probably won't happen again now that i've mentioned it...

lisah- if you're ever going to get it, that link is the place to go. It's interactive!

if you're ever going to get it, that link is the place to go. It's interactive!

Nope! I read through the explanation and ... nada. Doesn't make sense.

I knew that Macy's was already made of fail, but not carrying stuff because Chicago is too midwestern? Oh, please.

See if Zappos has them. Zappos doesn't care if you live in the midwest.

I had to go digging around Zappos to find the exact ones I wanted to try on, but there they are, so go team Zappos.

That's the kind of thing that can be explained to me a million times in a million different ways and I just won't understand. My brain is broken.

I think this is actually the first time I've really gotten it. Because it really is counterintuitive. You think the important decision is whether or not to switch, but it's not. It's your initial choice that determines the outcome.

Think about it this way: there are two goats and one car. Statistically speaking, you are more likely to pick a goat, right?

Well, if Monty opens a door to reveal a goat...statistically speaking, if you picked a goat, the remaining door MUST HAVE A CAR. Thus, you always switch. The only time you would lose is if you picked the car in the first place, and that only happens 33.3% of the time.

It's your initial choice that determines the outcome.

Well, no, I get that. of course. But you don't know what you've picked!

ah nevermind

It's seriously something I have a block about and I'm going to have to live with my stupidity!

But you don't know what you've picked!

You don't, that's right. But you know there is a higher probability that you picked a goat. Since there are two goats, the fact that Monty shows you a goat shouldn't really affect your impression of what you picked. He could do that no matter what you picked.

that only happens 33.3% of the time.

I only picked it once out of 12 tries.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.