That's the kind of thing that can be explained to me a million times in a million different ways and I just won't understand. My brain is broken.

I think this is actually the first time I've really gotten it. Because it really is counterintuitive. You think the important decision is whether or not to switch, but it's not. It's your initial choice that determines the outcome.

Think about it this way: there are two goats and one car. Statistically speaking, you are more likely to pick a goat, right?

Well, if Monty opens a door to reveal a goat...statistically speaking, if you picked a goat, the remaining door MUST HAVE A CAR. Thus, you always switch. The only time you would lose is if you picked the car in the first place, and that only happens 33.3% of the time.

It's your initial choice that determines the outcome.

Well, no, I get that. of course. But you don't know what you've picked!

ah nevermind

It's seriously something I have a block about and I'm going to have to live with my stupidity!

But you don't know what you've picked!

You don't, that's right. But you know there is a higher probability that you picked a goat. Since there are two goats, the fact that Monty shows you a goat shouldn't really affect your impression of what you picked. He could do that no matter what you picked.

that only happens 33.3% of the time.

I only picked it once out of 12 tries.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I think I get the idea, but if I remember Let's Make a Deal, the problem needs a new name. Because Monty didn't give you the choice of a car, a goat, or a goat. It was more like, a car, a decent cash prize that isn't enough to buy a car, and a goat. So once Monty shows you the goat, you know you have at least some cash.

Or am I being quibbly today?

It was more like, a car, a decent cash prize that isn't enough to buy a car, and a goat. So once Monty shows you the goat, you know you have at least some cash.

Unless the goat has eaten the cash....

I didn't try the game. Is what Monty shows you selected at random, or does he pick something to try to trip you up?

Is what Monty shows you selected at random, or does he pick something to try to trip you up

There are two goats and a car. He always shows you a goat.

It was more like, a car, a decent cash prize that isn't enough to buy a car, and a goat. So once Monty shows you the goat, you know you have at least some cash.

I don't think it changes anything, because you're still more likely to have chosen the non-car.

There are two goats and a car. He always shows you a goat.

Oh. OK.

Is that the way it works on the actual TV game show too? (since they have only one goat...)