Going with Cindy’s list of usual and unusual suspects:

Logan – Noooooo! I got no good reason to count him out, but I don’t want it to be him.

Aaron – Crazy enough, and motivated, but I can’t see him being the big bad 2 years running.

Celeste – There is more we don’t know about her, but I don’t see her motive here.

Boy that liked Marcos – Yeah, he was pretty sick, but I’m thinking his rage was more specific.

PCHer working behind Weevil's back – Only in conjunction with someone more powerful.

Fighting Fitzpatricks – I think these guys are pretty bad ass and clearly involved in some big conspiratorial storyline. They are high on my list.

Meg’s parents – Nah. I can’t see them taking out innocents despite their creepy factor.

Driver Ed's Wife – I don’t think she was clever enough.

Driver Ed's Girlfriend's Husband – I don’t think he knew about the affair.

Woody Goodman – He certainly has a closet full of something.

Curly’s talents could have been involved, but didn’t expect or know that a bunch of kids were going to be killed. Perhaps he was a guilty man and his remorse got him killed.

Not sure about Veronica as a target. I have to think about it more. I may even need to watch the season to date to clarify the events in my mind. It might be seen as my obligation to study it further.

eta: xpost w/ Kalshane on the Curly thing because I type slowly when doing work in other windows.

Oh, who am I kidding? I won't figure it out until Veronica fatally wounds Logan to stop the incorporation portal from opening.

Nuh uh. Steve Guttenberg's going to ascend.

now more concentrated crazy in every bite

Hee. Love this about Aaron.

Oh, who am I kidding? I won't figure it out until Veronica fatally wounds Logan to stop the incorporation portal from opening

See, I was going to say something about Logan coming back as a ghost, but then I realized we already had Lilly, so that slot's filled (one hopes)

Woody working WITH the Fitzpatricks AND the breakaway wing of Weevil's gang to engineer something to help the incorporation plan.

Oh, who am I kidding? I won't figure it out until Veronica fatally wounds Logan to stop the incorporation portal from opening.

snerk

Nuh uh. Steve Guttenberg's going to ascend.

Yeah, but first he has to get Neptune incorporated, so that he's an actual Mayor.

Woody Goodman – He certainly has a closet full of something.

Still my winner -- or, more to the point, a steadfast belief that the real target was Gia. Which can wrap around to the culprit not being Woody, but rather someone trying to send Woody a message.

• What's been kept in focus all season? Real estate -- it's a running theme, all the way down to them giving us investment tutorials along the way and a nice example of how real estate fraud works. All very SoCal.

• We know something's wrong in the house that Woody built -- Gia's a partier and something's up with the mom and the younger brother. Gia's also trying to get close to Dick Casablancas. Silly romantic plot? Certainly not being played for depth. Really, it's not been played for anything, but there it is. Kept just enough in focus that you don't forget it.

• No one saw the Casablancas family collapse coming, but man it was entrenched in the city, down to county inspectors being bribed -- and please recall that KENDALL made the payoff. She was knee deep in Big Dick's affairs from the beginning.

• So was Woody involved in Big Dick's crooked real estate ventures, awaiting a day when Neptune's a real town and property values skyrocket? Who's a cog in Woody's machinations, and who's a loose cannon?

• We've seen nothing of Woody and Gia together. Not really -- just enough to know the home life is tweaked and Gia gets to throw parties while her parents are home and Woody Jr. gets punished for next to nothing.

• So. Who is Gia? Why does she get a free pass the other kid doesn't? Just home life being unfair? Could be, but the disparity nags at me.

Still my winner -- or, more to the point, a steadfast belief that the real target was Gia.

I'm just coming up short on motive. Why would he want her dead?

I wanted to say, Why would he kill a bus full of kids just to off his daughter, but I guess that's the thing with hard-hearted killers -- to deflect attention, you would, conceivably, go with the method that doesn't lead back to you very obviously.

Still. What would he gain by her death? Money? It's a possibility, I guess, if there's some kind of trust fund issue there, but that hasn't been even hinted at. Pity? He won the election anyway.

What's been kept in focus all season? Real estate -- it's a running theme, all the way down to them giving us investment tutorials along the way and a nice example of how real estate fraud works.

Very true. But that leads me to believe that one of the PCHers is behind the bus crash. (On very little evidence, I'll grant you.)

I'm sticking by my theory that it's Backup, who is bitter over his lack of screen time this season, and didn't get credit for catching Echolls in Keith's book.

I'm just coming up short on motive. Why would he want her dead?

She's blackmailing him?

My suspicion is that any, well, suspicion we have now is a red herring. We're (surprisingly) nearly halfway through the season, but it's about time for the midseason change-up (TM Buffy).

Of course, lots of narratives focus on the real villian early, blow it up and then surprise us in the end. So it could turn out to be Woody, but we will have some reason to completely absolve him of suspicion between now and the end of the season. Aside from the fact that the washed-up 80s actor factor is too obvious.

This show rules.

She's blackmailing him?

Possible. Although she comes across as too self-absorbed and vapid to me to be a successful blackmailer.

It could explain why she gets priviledges and Little Brother is given the hairy eyeball for spilling water on the rug, though.

Aside from the fact that the washed-up 80s actor factor is too obvious.

Heh. Also true.