NO. Stay another day.

I have a question about the Make A Deal problem -- does the host turn over a goat card (forget for the moment that I want a goat, and already have a car) whether or not I've picked the car?

Yup. I think so.

Well, the dd/mm/yy I think of as European, not an American usage.

It's mandatory all through the military, as well. I've used it for years, since it removes confusion whether it's day-month or month-day, so long as you use the name of the month (i.e. 10 May 05 versus 5-10-05 or 10-5-05).

I'm fascinated that there's an internet community out there of any substantial size that doesn't have perceived power-differential issues.

We've invoked Snacky's Law: should we invoke Nutty's/Vee's Law too, now?

t goes off to mow the lawn, probably a better use of my time than discussing internet community psychosocial dynamics.

Matt, are they showing the crack junkie one too?

Is that the one with the red cap and white frosted lips? That's the clip I'm talking about. Though the whole commercial seems to be him shouting inarticulately in various guises rather than any of his speaking roles.

I think I may have sprained my throat laughing - just watched the "Truth Snake" episode of Coupling.

Yup. I think so.

Then I have no idea how changing your pick affects your chances of winning. How does knowing that card affect anything? If I'd known it was a goat before I picked my card, my choices would be 50/50. If I find out afterwards, the odds shift?

That's why it's a paradox.

I have a question about the Make A Deal problem -- does the host turn over a goat card (forget for the moment that I want a goat, and already have a car) whether or not I've picked the car?

Yes. Otherwise, you'd then know that the one you picked wasn't it, and he'd have just ruled out one of the other other two, leaving you knowing that the remaining one was it.

It wasn't presented as a paradox, though. Just a problem whose solution runs counter to much intuition.

When you pick yours the first time, you've got a 1/3 chance of being right. Him telling you that one of the other two isn't the car gives you no new information about the one you picked to begin with -- you already knew that at least one of those other two wasn't a car. You've still got a 1/3 chance of being right with the one you picked. But that leaves a 2/3 chance of being wrong, and that 2/3 chance is now entirely on the still hidden unpicked one.

(I really can't figure out a good way to explain this entirely. The way I was able to totally convince myself was just to set up all the different possible situations and look at the results.)