Great site, Betsy! If this comment on the qualities of a Best Actor performance most likely to be rewarded with a statue is true, than Foxx is a lock for this year:

Biographies of remarkable, real-life individuals (military figures or soldiers, law-and-order enforcers, historical figures) and portrayals of the mentally ill are heavily represented among male Oscar winners, particularly in the acting awards. It helps an actor's chances of winning an Oscar if the character dies a tragic death during the movie, or is slightly eccentric (or genius). An overwhelming number of actors have won the top acting (and supporting) awards for portraying characters with physical or mental disabilities or diseases...And a number of other actors have won awards for portraying alcoholic characters...

Ray Charles was a "remarkable, real-life individual;" even though he doesn't die in the movie, he did die recently in real life; and was a musical genius with a physical disability and drug addict (along the same lines as an alcoholic in voters' minds).

[link]

I think Imelda comes closest to the Hooker Corollary.

There are a lot of Oscars that boil down to "Oops, you did great work last year (or even years ago), so here's the statue retroactively."

Heh. Russell Crowe's Oscar for Gladiator was most certainly *actually* for his role the previous year in The Insider.

Imelda Staunton probably has a good chance to win, just because it's a Mike Leigh film and the Academy loves his work (remember Brenda Blethyn's surprise win for Secrets and Lies a few years ago), but I've heard that her performance is amazing. Annette Bening doesn't seem to have the buzz about her performance that usually accompanies a win at this time, and Kate Winslet's performance is from too early in the year and from a film that will probably only get the one win of Best Original Screenplay.

You could argue that Winslet is due.

Imelda Staunton is freaking AMAZING in that movie. Definitely one of the best film performances I have ever seen.

The Razzies are also out. [link]

The Razzies, which mock the worst in film, gave "Catwoman" a leading seven nominations Monday, among them worst picture, worst actress for Berry and worst supporting players for Sharon Stone and Lambert Wilson. "Catwoman" also was nominated for worst screen couple for Berry with either Stone or co-star Benjamin Bratt.

The historical bomb "Alexander" was second with six Razzie nominations, including worst picture, actor Colin Farrell, actress Angelina Jolie and director Oliver Stone.

I think that Winslet would have had a better chance if (a) ESotSM came out in the fall instead of mid-winter, and (b) Finding Neverland had bigger buzz, which would have spilled over onto her performance in the other movie. Also, she's getting so many excellent roles that I think the Academy will be thinking she can get nommed again in another year or two.

Good point about Imelda Staunton, Kathy.

Is Kate Winslet too young to win for her body of work? I think this is her third nomination or so, and while "Eternal Sunshine..." may be from too early in the year, "Findiing Neverland" might remind voters of her.

Edit: ... and another X-post.

Actually, I think this is her fourth nominee--Best Supporting for Sense and Sensibility and Iris, and Best Actress for Titanic and now Eternal Sunshine. Considering she isn't yet 30, that has to be a record!