Weird! Was I a big goofball? Or was I being a pretentious twit?

Neither. You were delurking to make a pretty good point about Xander and Anya's engagement, and then there were a lot of "Welcome Burrell!!!"s

Except -the summer before it would have bugged me a lot when speculating about the on-coming season to have taken part in a discussion about *whether* Buffy was returning and having had to confine speculationa about *how* she was returning to the spoiler threads.

That's getting really close to the "all the lurkers agree with me!" argument. Obviously, we can't know what people who don't say anything know, think, feel or believe.

I agree, Lyra. And I'd like to point out that I'm not the person who keeps bringing up the 'most people know' point. (edit) Except to ask if that's really the case.

Billytea, I understand that. My point is that if they don't say anything, we can't assume there's a vast army of the spoilerfree. It's the whole proving-a-negative issue.

Also, this thread was announced in Press; I'd think the unspoiled would want to weigh in here, since theyr'e the ones at risk.

Billyteas point is why I have said I can't prove it. But not just in the lightbulb threads, but in the natter, and discussion threads, I have gotten the impression that an overwhelming majority of people on this board don't find this particular type of information spoilery.

Bear in mind that basically we are talking about stuff that will be in the promos but is not yet. So it is spoilery only for those who find promos spoilery and manage to avoid them. And I don't think it is a bad guess that this is a small minority.

we can't assume there's a vast army of the spoilerfree

But we also can't assume everyone knows -- and I have been explicitly told that. So weighting one's vote on how many people are inconvenienced either way, although tempting and perhaps unavoidable, isn't sound.

I have another question.

If AD is leaving Angel, for instance, how will the promos tell us this?

Billytea, I understand that. My point is that if they don't say anything, we can't assume there's a vast army of the spoilerfree. It's the whole proving-a-negative issue.

Well, this is true, but is counterbalanced IMO by the inability to assume that there isn't such an army. Coupled with the concern that the observed spoilt:unspoilt ratio probably has a persistent skew against the spoilerfree when compared to the underlying ratio.

I do actually think the number probably is small, and Gar's reasoning - that the people who find it spoilery are likely to match closely with those who find promos spoilery - is part of the reason. But I also reason that the number is greater than it appears; I don't know how much greater.

But we also can't assume everyone knows -- and I have been explicitly told that. So weighting one's vote on how many people are inconvenienced either way, although tempting and perhaps unavoidable, isn't sound.

I disagree. I mean, there's no way we can say what people who haven't posted about this know or don't know, full stop. So all we have to go on is what *has* been posted, which implies that the vast majority of Buffistas seem to know the casting news and/or to not regard it as an important spoiler. I think that's important to recognize, especially since past experience shows us that few lurkers vote.

It's possible the people who already know are posting about this issue of all balance to their prevalence in the population. But if they are, we'll know that when this vote goes down in flames.

Well, this is true, but is counterbalanced IMO by the inability to assume that there isn't such an army

I think this is a safe assumption. That's where we differ.

Edited to expand: Maybe you can explain where my logic is faulty, but this is how I think about this -- We know we have at least one Israeli poster. It's *possible* there are other posters who have not said where they live who are also Israeli, and also possible we have many Israeli lurkers.

But if we started talking about catering to the Israeli posters (say, by making the board Hebrew-language), I imagine people would protest that, based on the fact we don't know of many Israeli posters and it would be inconvenient for the rest of us. Now, the entire population of Israel may, in fact, read these boards. But unless they post about it, they don't count for purposes of decision-making, because we can't prove they exist.