We're going to a concert (Boy George and Squeeze!), so we'll miss it live. I like to vote, but I'm doing it early this year. I still have hope for Harris/Walz.

I am 100% skipping the debate and waiting to see highlights and lowlights after. I don’t need to subject my blood pressure to all that.

Getting the text that my mail-in ballot has been received and counted is pretty sweet.

Yes. That is a good feeling.

I have to watch the debate. I'll be wearing my Harris t-shirt and eating popcorn. I'm hoping my sister test negative today so she can join us. If not I am torn between going to her place to watch or staying here with Brendon. The last debate was so awful I need a stellar performance from her to erase the memory.

Boy George and Squeeze!)

Wow! Fun!

I can't handle watching Trump speak in any capacity.

Yeah, I've skipped all of them for a long time because of this (see also George W Bush but that seems mild in comparison) but for some reason I have FOMO about this one

I'm going to start watching the debate, but I don't know how much of Trump's ugly face and stupid lies I can stand. I'll have to see how it goes. I definitely don't have enough wine to get through much ....

I'm going to start watching the debate, but I don't know how much of Trump's ugly face and stupid lies I can stand.

That's where I'm at, I think. We don't really drink, but I might have rum somewhere...

They're having a watch and post at work...I'll stop in. I guess I like voting, but not because it's, you know, fun and never disappointing. Gotta go with Sister Nina, here. "If you don't do politics, politics will do you." Hello, somebody!(Um, sorry, guess a little pent-up passion, there--not the porny kind.) Karl, darn rogue celebrities, shuffling off the mortal coil without checking with you first.(Although now I've got a story in my head of you in a meeting, trying hard to duck(say)Rita Moreno's phone calls.

I was encouraged by Allan Lichtman's prediction process. I'm going to believe that he is right again and show up. I'm even hopeful about Florida for the first time since Obama.

From your fingertips to god's ears.

Bring back the old fashioned lever machines and more people will enjoy voting. (ka-CHUNK!)

I used one of these in Boston when I voted for my representative Tip O'Neill for his last term in office. That's right - I've had two congressional representatives who were Speaker of the House.

Also, I got to use the big Straight Democratic Slate lever! Fun.

I am 100% skipping the debate and waiting to see highlights and lowlights after. I don’t need to subject my blood pressure to all that.

This is my strategy.

I woke up at 4am this morning stressing about the election. It's too fucking close and the possibility of a Trump presidency is too fucking dire.

However, here are several factors that I think are strong positives for the Dems:

1. There are key abortion referendums in several swing states including NV, AZ and FL. I think this could be a tipping point in the Western states as this drives up energized women voters.

2. After Kamala became the candidate there was a massive upsurge in voter registration from black women (175%!), Hispanic women (145%) and young voters. New voters are more likely to vote in the election so these are key demos for Dems. This is where you could see Dem gains in Georgia and North Carolina.

3. In, I think, 5 of the 7 swing states, there are important senatorial campaigns and the Dems are leading in most of them. People rarely split tickets anymore. As Rueben Gallego goes, so goes Kamala (I think).

4. Dems have pulled in half a billion dollars after Kamala became the nominee. They have twice as much money to spend than the Republicans and have been spending it smartly with some great targeted ads, and not just TV. They have enough to also send big chunks of money down ballot in key Senate and Congressional races.

5. Walz was a great pick. He really bolsters her in the Blue Wall states and his common sense approach to progressive issues is just the populist move that the Dems need. Vance was a terrible pick. Vance only appeals to Trump's base without expanding it, and he really alienates women.

6. Harris/Walz have been campaigning really hard, including bus tours through PA and GA. Trump has not been campaigning at all, and when he does open his mouth he's spewing verbal diarrhea.

7. Focus groups have been more valuable in the last several elections than polls (because people can't be reached for polling as they once were). The NYT focus group among undecided Pennsylvania voters showed the majority of them leaning hard to Kamala after the DNC. As voters get to know her and see her as a populist moderate, they are willing to accept her.

Things that are more discouraging:

Polls have tightened up after the initial bounce of Harris' candidacy, and Pennsylvania is a dead heat.

No matter what vile shit Trump says, his base thinks he's the messiah.

It could come down to Georgia and they've put in some bullshit rules about certifying the votes for the electoral college which could throw things to the courts, or just create uncertainty.

Yet to be determined:

I think the debate performance tonight will be a huge difference maker. Harris still needs to define herself to the electorate so she needs to continue to lay out the populist economic policies she's tacked towards (Child tax credits, down payment help for new home owners etc.).

She has to deftly turn aside Trump's personal attacks and make him looks small and stupid. The key here is what they've done in the campaign, which is use humor against him. She's got to nail him hard to abortion and Project 2025.

My Gut:

Harris takes Michigan and Wisconsin but not Pennsylvania. Harris takes Arizona and Nevada, and then one of Georgia or NC. But again - those new Georgia election rules stink.

Bonus Round:

Chris Bouzy's analysis suggests that this race tracks like Reagan's win against Carter, where it was close through mid-October then the Dems support fell away and Reagan had a landslide. Though he suggests this will slide Harris' way and she will win the swing states.

Stretch goals: Both NC and TX(!) are closer than they ought to be, because downticket races are dragging Trump down, rather than the opposite.

All I want for Christmas is for Ted Cruz to lose.