I was encouraged by Allan Lichtman's prediction process. I'm going to believe that he is right again and show up. I'm even hopeful about Florida for the first time since Obama.

From your fingertips to god's ears.

Bring back the old fashioned lever machines and more people will enjoy voting. (ka-CHUNK!)

I used one of these in Boston when I voted for my representative Tip O'Neill for his last term in office. That's right - I've had two congressional representatives who were Speaker of the House.

Also, I got to use the big Straight Democratic Slate lever! Fun.

I am 100% skipping the debate and waiting to see highlights and lowlights after. I don’t need to subject my blood pressure to all that.

This is my strategy.

I woke up at 4am this morning stressing about the election. It's too fucking close and the possibility of a Trump presidency is too fucking dire.

However, here are several factors that I think are strong positives for the Dems:

1. There are key abortion referendums in several swing states including NV, AZ and FL. I think this could be a tipping point in the Western states as this drives up energized women voters.

2. After Kamala became the candidate there was a massive upsurge in voter registration from black women (175%!), Hispanic women (145%) and young voters. New voters are more likely to vote in the election so these are key demos for Dems. This is where you could see Dem gains in Georgia and North Carolina.

3. In, I think, 5 of the 7 swing states, there are important senatorial campaigns and the Dems are leading in most of them. People rarely split tickets anymore. As Rueben Gallego goes, so goes Kamala (I think).

4. Dems have pulled in half a billion dollars after Kamala became the nominee. They have twice as much money to spend than the Republicans and have been spending it smartly with some great targeted ads, and not just TV. They have enough to also send big chunks of money down ballot in key Senate and Congressional races.

5. Walz was a great pick. He really bolsters her in the Blue Wall states and his common sense approach to progressive issues is just the populist move that the Dems need. Vance was a terrible pick. Vance only appeals to Trump's base without expanding it, and he really alienates women.

6. Harris/Walz have been campaigning really hard, including bus tours through PA and GA. Trump has not been campaigning at all, and when he does open his mouth he's spewing verbal diarrhea.

7. Focus groups have been more valuable in the last several elections than polls (because people can't be reached for polling as they once were). The NYT focus group among undecided Pennsylvania voters showed the majority of them leaning hard to Kamala after the DNC. As voters get to know her and see her as a populist moderate, they are willing to accept her.

Things that are more discouraging:

Polls have tightened up after the initial bounce of Harris' candidacy, and Pennsylvania is a dead heat.

No matter what vile shit Trump says, his base thinks he's the messiah.

It could come down to Georgia and they've put in some bullshit rules about certifying the votes for the electoral college which could throw things to the courts, or just create uncertainty.

Yet to be determined:

I think the debate performance tonight will be a huge difference maker. Harris still needs to define herself to the electorate so she needs to continue to lay out the populist economic policies she's tacked towards (Child tax credits, down payment help for new home owners etc.).

She has to deftly turn aside Trump's personal attacks and make him looks small and stupid. The key here is what they've done in the campaign, which is use humor against him. She's got to nail him hard to abortion and Project 2025.

My Gut:

Harris takes Michigan and Wisconsin but not Pennsylvania. Harris takes Arizona and Nevada, and then one of Georgia or NC. But again - those new Georgia election rules stink.

Bonus Round:

Chris Bouzy's analysis suggests that this race tracks like Reagan's win against Carter, where it was close through mid-October then the Dems support fell away and Reagan had a landslide. Though he suggests this will slide Harris' way and she will win the swing states.

Stretch goals: Both NC and TX(!) are closer than they ought to be, because downticket races are dragging Trump down, rather than the opposite.

All I want for Christmas is for Ted Cruz to lose.

I'm on a plane to Atlanta to do work at Six Flags Fright Fest there for a couple of days. In flight I'm working on putting out fires for teams at 5 other Six Flags parks.

This is already a hectic day and I'm not even off the plane.

Seconding Dana!

A Cruz loss would truly be icing.

Sorry about the hectic day, ND. That's a lot of firefighting.

I love and endorse the analysis, David. There are just so many groups where she has the advantage. Women, youth, minorities. And she is chipping away at and/or he is alienating groups like vets and law enforcement. I feel good about it.

I do so hope to see her wipe the floor with him tonight. She knows his playbook.

Things that are more discouraging:

No matter what vile shit Trump says, his base thinks he's the messiah.

Thing that is more encouraging: Trump's base was already locked in, numbers-wise. He was never going to get *more* voters. The biggest issue when Biden was still the candidate was voter apathy on the Democratic side, where Trump would get all his votes, but Democrats just wouldn't vote at all.

Where we are now seems like the Democrats (particularly younger people and Black women) are energized for Harris/Walz, which points to a higher turnout than they would have seen for Biden, and a likely win.

Even so, I'd like to cast my absentee ballot and then be put into a drug-induced coma until after the election.

In purely unscientific observation, There are far fewer Trump signs in this very red area. As in extremely rare, which was not the case in the prior 2 elections. Noticeably fewer. I have heard the same from friends and relatives in other red areas. I'm going to take it as a good indication. Or at least not a bad one.

She knows his playbook.

It's not just that he's a liar (though he obviously is), he's increasing incoherent verbally. For real, Trump's speech patterns remind me very very much of how my dad talks, and *he* hallucinates blue people and aliens in his apartment. I would be 110% UNsurprised to learn that Trump hallucinates people and/or aliens.

In purely unscientific observation, There are far fewer Trump signs in this very red area. As in extremely rare, which was not the case in the prior 2 elections.

They are all over the place here, but I wasn't here for the last election so it could be that there are less. It probably makes me a bit more pessimistic though.

Thing that is more encouraging: Trump's base was already locked in, numbers-wise. He was never going to get *more* voters.

His favorability is higher than it has been in the past, so Harris has to probably outperform Biden from 2020 and right now she isn't there yet, which is making me think Trump will win. She really needs to get back to his 2020 level with Black and Latino voters.