OMG. I hate hearing about how retaking Mosul should be a surprise attack like it's some sort of fucking commando raid. The Iraqi army isn't going to be able to keep a major mobilization under the covers.
It's so infuriating. As in so many other areas, his ignorance really shows, and he's not getting called on it half enough. I'm going to go out on a limb and say I know way more about military history than Trump does, and I can hardly think of any examples of STRATEGIC surprise. Surprise is generally about TACTICS. Such exceptions as I can think of are mostly at the start of hostilities, and even then the signs are usually there if the about-to-be-attacked country isn't too deep in denial.
Princeton Consortium has HRC's win probability at 99%. [link] God, that is so beautiful. Even in the face of Trump whining and pre-claiming the results will be rigged and then potentially not accepting the results, that probability is so. fucking. BEAUTIFUL.
Epic, if you don't mind, how long did it take you to recover? I'm seeing estimates of at least 4 weeks (for endoscopic surgery), and that's reaaaalllly badly timed, with me just starting remote work.
Princeton Consortium has HRC's win probability at 99%
I was just coming to post that!!
JLC + Scrappy BFF!
Huh. Now I'm thinking about election night, and his (potential*) concession speech on election night.
Does he do it, and not really concede? Does Pence have to do it? Do we end up with hours of "why isn't he conceding already?" on the news?
I'm more worried about what his base does. Like, to the point that I'm going to the gun range this weekend. They have been using violent rhetoric and imagery, they have been using apocalyptic rhetoric and imagery, he's primed them to believe in conspiracies, and they aren't good with facts. And violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.
Skipping to share that I'm wearing a sweater that's white at the shoulders, then lavender and purple at the hem, and a coworker just asked me if I wore ombre on purpose. As I told her, I did not, but I am going to say I did now!
I share that worry, Raq, but I don't know what to do about it.
I am stockpiling wine and plan to have myself a party.
I'm more worried about what his base does.
I thought I was glad in 2008 and 2012 to live in our hilariously super-far-end-of-the-political-spectrum liberal neighborhood (and I was!), but the one thing I can reasonably be assured of is that no one will lose their mind and go out looking for a Democrat to shoot. (There's the outside probability of Trump supporters getting each other riled up and deciding "Hey, let's go to Northside and shoot some Democrats," but honestly, we're really hard to get to. There is no good way to get to Northside from a major highway. It's kind of hilarious. We're like Brigadoon, if Brigadoon were full of liberals, queer folk, hipsters, and heroin dealers.)
I am stockpiling wine and plan to have myself a party.
I'm *just* about ready to buy champagne. I've been holding off because I don't want to jinx the election (like, don't post the Hamilton GIF! but also, don't buy champagne yet!), but I might be ready.
I kind of want to watch the returns with my mom and stepdad (diehard Democrats who live in Trump country), but it's about a half-hour drive, and if the election doesn't get called until late, that's a long-ass drive back. And also my mom goes to bed early, though she might make an exception for the election. So maybe. I don't know.
