Don't look at fivethirtyeight's polls/polls-plus predictions right now. Jesus. (I know it's the post-RNC bounce, and things will look really different next Friday, but DAMN. I mean. HOW. WHY. HOW.)

It's not a post-RNC bounce. There aren't any polls covering the period past about 20 July yet. The current estimates are heavily influenced by a set of state polls from Quinnipiac which are particularly favourable to Trump. Quinnipiac is pretty reputable, they're no Rasmussen; but from what I understand, I think they might be unusually generous in their assumptions on turnout among white voters. (That said, I think it's clear the conclusion to the email investigation did hurt her.)

I'm not sure how much of a bounce Trump will get from the RNC, if any. It wasn't a complete tyre fire, but they did have the plagiarism scandal and Cruz' PUMA hatchet job. The optics and headlines aren't terrific. And the content was pretty much wall-to-wall dystopia. Conventional wisdom is that hopeful messages usually play better. Sure, the party faithful will love it (and inexplicably seemed to regard Trump's speech as positive), but will it sway voters who weren't already on board?

I think the post-conventions bounce is pretty much Hillary's to win at this point.

Thank you, bt. I need to believe. When I see Trump, and more so his supporters, I get a certain tightness in my chest.

Oh god, that trip to market was sweltering. Shower after went from lukewarm to just plain cold. Revised plan for the day: haircut, TJs, then straight to the pool. I may just spend the whole afternoon there after my swim. Or head to Druid pool to people watch.

Timelies all!

Not much going on here, and that's fine by me.

So I swam. It is hot out. Zoe apparently tasted a toad so now I have to go back outside again and hose down her mouth. Ick.

So fricking hot. Even with the ac on blast, took the whole ride home to cool the car.

I don't even want to leave the house, because it means getting in the hot car.

So glad I live in the PNW. :) my sister yesterday was like "have you ever heard of corn sweat?!?!" My first thought was something like the meat sweats but no, it's how vast fields of corn can raise the humidity??

We've got hot air combined with wildfire smoke. Thank God I went on daily asthma medication a few months ago.

I'm going to the beach.