Thanks, le n. That's what I'd been groping toward in my non-mathy way -- in a problem with as many data points and as little actual available data (public polls for only 25% of the House races) as the 2010 elections, how on earth do you conclusively calculate an absolute negative?

My brain hurts just trying to put the words around that.

well, JZ, absent of context, Nate Silver expressly does not want to do that. He isn't a commentator or a politico. He provides data and analysis. Therefore, he shows what polling and other things may mean for race predictions.

He expressly does not come down on the side of "ain't no WAY that will happen." If said poster is looking for that kind of analysis, perhaps he needs to choose sources for his information that are less nuanced.

Then again, it is difficult to see journalistic truth in sources that are not nuanced.

If said poster is looking for that kind of analysis, perhaps he needs to choose sources for his information that are less nuanced.

Then again, it is difficult to see journalistic truth in sources that are not nuanced.

Or, as Matilda likes to quote from one of the more memorable episodes of Adventure Time, "That pony is whack with poo-brain!"

So, I really didn't like Chris Brown.

Now, I am questioning his sanity. I do not get why he is so self-destructive. It's now something out of a shogun movie (or a western). When will our hero take him down?

If Romney projections were 20% of winning the Presidency, the rich members of the GOP would be losing their shit more than they are currently.

Um, according to Nate Silver, those are Romney's chances, rounded to the nearest whole number.

I'd ask the person you're arguing with to show his work. Sounds like Arguer needs to prove that, in January 2009, the Democrats were 100% guaranteed to lose enough seats in the 2010 election to lose control of the House. And if Arguer can prove that sort of confidence in an election 22 months off, he shouldn't be wasting that kind of talent arguing with someone on the Internet.

So, I really didn't like Chris Brown

I would not recognize him if I bumped into him on the street--except apparently he would throw a chair at me, and I would see his horrifying tattoo.

Thta's a young man in serious need of help. Pity he isn't willing to get it.

Fred,

are you fucking kidding? I have not been looking closely at his projections of the Presidential race because I have been tense lately.

Damn.

It's been even split in the polls, but that doesn't reflect geography at all (as one example)

Now, I am questioning his sanity. I do not get why he is so self-destructive.

Yeah, I don't know what the hell that's about. Clearly he needs something.

I have not been looking closely at his projections of the Presidential race because I have been tense lately.

OTOH, I've been refreshing like a lab rat pressing a lever because I have been tense lately. Election is nigh! I need actual data with an actual model behind it and not just yahoos on tv taking one crap poll out of context!