So, I really didn't like Chris Brown.

Now, I am questioning his sanity. I do not get why he is so self-destructive. It's now something out of a shogun movie (or a western). When will our hero take him down?

If Romney projections were 20% of winning the Presidency, the rich members of the GOP would be losing their shit more than they are currently.

Um, according to Nate Silver, those are Romney's chances, rounded to the nearest whole number.

I'd ask the person you're arguing with to show his work. Sounds like Arguer needs to prove that, in January 2009, the Democrats were 100% guaranteed to lose enough seats in the 2010 election to lose control of the House. And if Arguer can prove that sort of confidence in an election 22 months off, he shouldn't be wasting that kind of talent arguing with someone on the Internet.

So, I really didn't like Chris Brown

I would not recognize him if I bumped into him on the street--except apparently he would throw a chair at me, and I would see his horrifying tattoo.

Thta's a young man in serious need of help. Pity he isn't willing to get it.

Fred,

are you fucking kidding? I have not been looking closely at his projections of the Presidential race because I have been tense lately.

Damn.

It's been even split in the polls, but that doesn't reflect geography at all (as one example)

Now, I am questioning his sanity. I do not get why he is so self-destructive.

Yeah, I don't know what the hell that's about. Clearly he needs something.

I have not been looking closely at his projections of the Presidential race because I have been tense lately.

OTOH, I've been refreshing like a lab rat pressing a lever because I have been tense lately. Election is nigh! I need actual data with an actual model behind it and not just yahoos on tv taking one crap poll out of context!

I'm curious what the numbers are for "real" meridian-points acupuncture vs random-needles-anywhere acupuncture.

The sham treatments considered in the meta-analyis were pretty heterogeneous (e.g. needles that do not puncture the skin), and did not really test the theory underlying acupuncture, just the procedure. There are many reasons that the sham and experimental treatments could differ, including, for instance, that people who undergo a more uncomfortable treatment are more likely to have a bias to report that it resulted in a greater reduction in pain.

So the results for acupuncture are pretty similar to those for chiropractic: the procedures show some effectiveness for chronic pain, even though there are absolutely no data to suggest that they are effective for the reasons supposed by acupuncturists and chiropractors.

But honestly, tests of presumed mechanisms are pretty rare in medicine. If something works, it gets used. Good on acupuncture. The procedure seems to have small but detectible effects.

I have not been looking closely at his projections of the Presidential race because I have been tense lately.

OTOH, I've been refreshing like a lab rat pressing a lever because I have been tense lately. Election is nigh! I need actual data with an actual model behind it and not just yahoos on tv taking one crap poll out of context!

I work in a part of town that is ridiculously conservative, virtually all-white, and large with the we-love-the-Republicans-and-have-fundraisers-for-them attitude.

When I was out running errands at lunch, I saw 10 (TEN!) yard signs for Obama, and only 1 (ONE!!!1!) for Romney.

Granted that that's not super predictive, and the election is, what? Seven weeks away? But still. When this part of town is backing Obama, I suddenly feel like he's going to win by a much larger margin than I was envisioning. (I was previously envisioning a razor-thin margin, but still an Obama victory.)

The "margin" thing is weird, because I bet he does great in the electoral college, but the overall popular vote may still be close-ish. All information gleaned from pulleditoutofmyass.com.