Interactive version of The Monty Hall Problem.
So the idea is to presume that your first pick will always be a goat. Which should be true 2 out of every 3 times.
Yes, there is. There's a hurry, Xander. I'm dying...I may have as few as fifty years left.
Anya ,'Same Time, Same Place'
Natter 63: Life after PuppyCam
Off-topic discussion. Wanna talk about corsets, duct tape, or physics? This is the place. Detailed discussion of any current-season TV must be whitefonted.
aurelia - Mar 16, 2009 11:31:32 am PDT #10935 of 30000
All sorrows can be borne if you put them into a story. Tell me a story.
sarameg - Mar 16, 2009 11:27:29 am PDT #10936 of 30000
I'm sorry, ita.
My fac guy is giving me some boxes, including xerox ones and it turns out he has a moving/handyman business on the side and has moved a lot of my coworkers. I'll definitely get a quote from him.
Dana - Mar 16, 2009 11:27:38 am PDT #10937 of 30000
I haven't trusted science since I saw the film "Flubber."
I don't get why that supports switching your choice from the first door you picked.
It's the fact that Monty Hall will always open a door with a goat behind it, not a random door.
If your strategy is to always switch doors, you will lose only if your initial choice is the door with the car, which is a 33.3 percent chance. In the other two cases (66.7 percent of the time) you will switch to the car and walk away a winner.
Rick - Mar 16, 2009 11:30:13 am PDT #10938 of 30000
I get that, but I don't get why that supports switching your choice from the first door you picked.
I think it is easiest to imagine a modified problem where there are 1000 doors. You pick one at random. Now Monty opens 998 doors, leaving the one you picked and one other. Do you stay with your door, chosen when the chance of being correct was 1/1000 or do you choose the other door, chosen when the chance of being correct was 1/2?
The three door version is the same thing, but less extreme.
aurelia - Mar 16, 2009 11:35:34 am PDT #10939 of 30000
All sorrows can be borne if you put them into a story. Tell me a story.
I don't think 1/2 ever enters into it, Rick. The chances are weighted toward picking the wrong door to begin with. When the other losing doors are revealed, the chances are that the remaining door is the winner.
tommyrot - Mar 16, 2009 11:36:34 am PDT #10940 of 30000
Sir, it's not an offence to let your cat eat your bacon. Okay? And we don't arrest cats, I'm very sorry.
OMG. I have just only now just discovered that Fox sucks.
OK. Six months ago, Biden said this:
Ladies and gentlemen, I believe that’s why John McCain could say with a straight face as recently as this morning and this is a quote, “the fundamentals of the economy are strong.” That’s what John said. He says that “We’ve made great progress economically in the Bush years.”
And now Fox is quoting Biden saying "the fundamentals of the economy are strong," and they're claiming he just said this.
Fox News Makes Up NEW LYING TUNE For Dumb Obama And Biden
Dana - Mar 16, 2009 11:37:31 am PDT #10941 of 30000
I haven't trusted science since I saw the film "Flubber."
Husband's on phone with technical support for our internet connection. He has already been disconnected once. I hate the cable company so much.
Sophia Brooks - Mar 16, 2009 11:38:24 am PDT #10942 of 30000
Cats to become a rabbit should gather immediately now here
Do we assume that no one ever chooses the door with the car behind it on the first try?
Also, I cannot find the Saturday Night Live Sketch of the "Making Copies" thing on-line at all-- am I crazy. I need to show a young cow-orker so he doesn't think I am making it up!
Jesse - Mar 16, 2009 11:40:52 am PDT #10943 of 30000
Sometimes I trip on how happy we could be.
The NYTimes explanation really cleared it all up for me!
Do we assume that no one ever chooses the door with the car behind it on the first try?
That's the only time when switching makes you lose -- that's the 1/3.
Jesse - Mar 16, 2009 11:42:25 am PDT #10944 of 30000
Sometimes I trip on how happy we could be.
Also, I cannot find the Saturday Night Live Sketch of the "Making Copies" thing on-line at all-- am I crazy. I need to show a young cow-orker so he doesn't think I am making it up!
You can't just spend ten minutes going, "Coworker! Coworker-ama! Coworkalama-ding-dong! Makin copies!" and have that work?