I look at the pie charts on [link]

I wish I understood what some of the map graphics mean. I've pked around the site, but I can't find an explanation for what the maps called "Tipping Point States" and "Return on Investment Index" mean. If anyone can shed some light, I'd be grateful.

Also, the pie charts' relationships to each other confuse me -- what's the difference between "Win Percentage" and "Popular Vote"?

I saw Nate Silver on Colbert yesterday, and he said "Win Percentage" is the likelihood that Obama would win.

I believe "Win Percentage" is the odds that he'll actually take it. Not being a stat-head, I haven't looked that hard into all the methodologies and charts and etc., because I also like the blogging.

"Tipping Point States"

Probability that that will be the state that decides it all.

"Return on Investment Index"

States where investment in advertising/campaigning will have the most bang for the buck.

Win percentage is the probability that a candidate will win. Popular vote is what the average of the polls currently says -- like when some poll says "Obama's leading 52-46", only with multiple polls counted in the result (in other words, they're not saying that Obama is going to get 89% of the vote).

There's a lot in the FAQ, but I found it easiest to grok the site by following it for a few days and seeing how things changed as new results came in; there's a "today's polls" post every day that explains the new results and the effects they're having.

wrod. Mr. Silver has been quite the unlikely TV star lately.

My midwife even said, "I have people turn up pregnant at their 6-week postpartum checkup all the time.

Ha! My OB said the same thing.

Which, like JZ, and several other moms here, sex was the absolute last thing on my mind when Em was 4 weeks old.

Dude. Yeah. I mean, after the 6 week appointment, there were a few times, but frankly, I wasn't that into it, and was mostly just feeling kind of like I should after spending most of my time expecting on pelvic rest. I don't think I had anything like a libido until well after the introduction of solids.

Mr. Silver has been quite the unlikely TV star lately.

Quite unlikely. I can't decide whether to have a hopeless geek crush or find him kind of watch-from-the-hall. Not that he's done anything painful or embarrasing, but that I kind of want to say, "umm, yes, we geeks really are that geeky. Please don't put us in a locker."

(I'd also say that not giving a rat's fuckhole about someone's color is a pretty decent working definition of getting over it. Doesn't mean that the transition stops there, but it's pretty good as a place to start.)

I'm just saying that I don't see this truly changing any real bigot's beliefs or prejudices. If they are really and truly and deeply racist, at best Obama will get the "what a useful (n-word)" treatment.

Hopefully some of these people *will* see the error of their racist thinking. But I don't see a lot of that happening.

Aw, Keith is too close to being locker-bait himself to shove Nate in one.He may have the big voice now and have learned you have to find the right girl before you can say "Hey, wanna see my baseball cards?" But Mr. Olbermann? Tremendous geek. Occasionally our geekiness overlaps, for one thing.

One of the things I heard most often after giving birth, while still in the hospital, was "what are you going to do for birth control"?

A very effective answer is, "remain a lesbian." It tends to make people shut up.