You're wrong about River. River's not on the ship. They didn't want her here, but she couldn't make herself leave. So she melted... Melted away. They didn't know she could do that, but she did.

River ,'Objects In Space'


Natter 60: Gone In 60 Seconds  

Off-topic discussion. Wanna talk about corsets, duct tape, or physics? This is the place. Detailed discussion of any current-season TV must be whitefonted.


Nilly - Jul 28, 2008 11:37:00 pm PDT #144 of 10003
Swouncing

t Waves at Shir You're going to the concert tonight, right?

It's age-appropriate, of course. Real sharing doesn't take place for a while yet.

Oh, of course. That's why I asked (I'm far from knowing which behavior fits which age).

They typically like to dress their dolls and stuffed animals in Owen's clothes.

And still with the adorableness. Any reason they prefer his clothes to hers?


Shir - Jul 28, 2008 11:52:33 pm PDT #145 of 10003
"And that's why God Almighty gave us fire insurance and the public defender".

You're going to the concert tonight, right?

YES! Free concert, I feel so lucky.


Shir - Jul 29, 2008 1:35:08 am PDT #146 of 10003
"And that's why God Almighty gave us fire insurance and the public defender".

Ah-ha! Some of the scheme behind the "giving Shir a free ticket to an expansive concert" just revealed.

The friend who gave me the ticket (she got 2 for free as a prise, but it's still very nice of her) just called me to say "btw, you don't mind if we'll hang out with x and y there, right?". Y is the person that she tried to fix me up with about a year ago, and I run away screaming (not from y, which I'm sure is a nice, decent guy. It's the mere idea of dating and fixing me up with anyone that sends me running and screaming at the opposite direction).

I'm amused.


Nilly - Jul 29, 2008 1:53:55 am PDT #147 of 10003
Swouncing

Shir, could you just see this Y person tonight without any past baggage?

Setting-you-up or not, that's just a definition from the outside, you know? If this is a nice person and you want to meet again, just like you may want to meet again any other nice people, then why not, right?


Shir - Jul 29, 2008 2:13:22 am PDT #148 of 10003
"And that's why God Almighty gave us fire insurance and the public defender".

Oh, no past baggages here, or fear, nor worries.

I'm just amused, because this friend doesn't stop to try to set me up with people, that's all. Certainly not anything that would prevent me from seeing a free live concert.

But about the "definition from the outside" - well, the minute that definition effects my life, it also applies on me, no?

Edit: English.


Jesse - Jul 29, 2008 2:49:01 am PDT #149 of 10003
Sometimes I trip on how happy we could be.

That's kind of funny, Shir. At least it's a concert and not, say, dinner, so you don't actually have to talk to Y if you're not feeling it...

Oooh! I have a teensy weensy bacon chocolate bar. Very excited.

I finally tried that the other day! It was good times, if a little odd.

Allyson, I'm glad there seems to be some solution for you at work, but for crying out loud, it is TOTALLY your boss's fault. Even if not on purpose, his demands were/are clearly unreasonable.


Nilly - Jul 29, 2008 3:25:12 am PDT #150 of 10003
Swouncing

But about the "definition from the outside" - well, the minute that definition effects my life, it also applies on me, no?

Well, the way I see it, you - not just you in person, pretty much everybody - can pretty much choose how to look at those things.

I mean, thinking "oh, I'm being set up, that's so awkward, why would this guy even wanna go out with me, if I say this he'll definitely not wanna go out with me, maybe I should say this on purpose then? How awkward, I can't even listen to the music" may end up in one sort of an evening, and thinking "she wants to set me up? Fine. I'm here for the music and the good company and the fun of it all, and hey, why not meet a new person along the way?" may cause a completely different evening, with those exact same surrounding facts, you know?

In other news, I already crashed matlab today twice, and my slowly-poisoned computer just stopped talking to the printer (no, first the printer shouted its errors everywhere, and when that was fixed, it was for everybody else, but me). And I didn't even try to print my dissertation, seeing as the computer still refuses to recognize old figures and I have to wander in the attic of old files and re-create them from scratch. Sigh. I should be careful and not press on buttons in elevators and stuff, who knows how I may affect them. And not enter cars. Or hold cell phones.

it is TOTALLY your boss's fault.

Um, as the printer incident above just clearly proves once again, everything is my fault.

It's Allyson's boss responsibility that the situation deteriorated, of course. And regardless, it's definitely not her fault, I totally agree.


billytea - Jul 29, 2008 4:07:04 am PDT #151 of 10003
You were a wrong baby who grew up wrong. The wrong kind of wrong. It's better you hear it from a friend.

In other news, I already crashed matlab today twice, and my slowly-poisoned computer just stopped talking to the printer (no, first the printer shouted its errors everywhere, and when that was fixed, it was for everybody else, but me).

Nilly, you use Matlab? We just got a licence at work, we're supposed to be using it to develop our return assumptions model. And if ever there's a break in our client load, maybe we'll even get a chance to do that.


Nilly - Jul 29, 2008 4:13:48 am PDT #152 of 10003
Swouncing

you use Matlab?

Yup, and it's a great software for my needs (and I'm definitely not using a lot of its options).

It's quite friendly, too (and if you ever do get to work with it, and need some beginner's tips, I'd love to try and help, if I can).

develop our return assumptions model

What is a return-assumptions model, if it's OK to ask, and you think I can actually follow the answer?


billytea - Jul 29, 2008 4:31:58 am PDT #153 of 10003
You were a wrong baby who grew up wrong. The wrong kind of wrong. It's better you hear it from a friend.

It's quite friendly, too (and if you ever do get to work with it, and need some beginner's tips, I'd love to try and help, if I can).

That could be very helpful, thanks.

What is a return-assumptions model, if it's OK to ask, and you think I can actually follow the answer?

Sure, it's not that complicated in theory. It's just a statistical model for using historical data to estimate the parameters of random distributions on different asset classes, like bonds, equities, cash, property etc. Of course, first you have to specify what form the distributions take, e.g. is it lognormal or something with fatter tails, is your volatility stationary or non-stationary, what other factors affect returns (like inflation and interest rates)?

They're very important questions for my work, because the assumptions model is used for risk management, and that means you need to be able to represent your real-world risks in your model. There's a lot of literature to help with that, but since you can never be quite sure the extent to which future behaviour's going to match past, it still takes a fair amount of judgement.

We use it basically for risk management, and that means that we have to get the relationships between the asset classes and other variables (like inflation and interest rates) looking sensible