It's quite friendly, too (and if you ever do get to work with it, and need some beginner's tips, I'd love to try and help, if I can).

That could be very helpful, thanks.

What is a return-assumptions model, if it's OK to ask, and you think I can actually follow the answer?

Sure, it's not that complicated in theory. It's just a statistical model for using historical data to estimate the parameters of random distributions on different asset classes, like bonds, equities, cash, property etc. Of course, first you have to specify what form the distributions take, e.g. is it lognormal or something with fatter tails, is your volatility stationary or non-stationary, what other factors affect returns (like inflation and interest rates)?

They're very important questions for my work, because the assumptions model is used for risk management, and that means you need to be able to represent your real-world risks in your model. There's a lot of literature to help with that, but since you can never be quite sure the extent to which future behaviour's going to match past, it still takes a fair amount of judgement.

We use it basically for risk management, and that means that we have to get the relationships between the asset classes and other variables (like inflation and interest rates) looking sensible

A morning question for the hivemind:

I need to get my husband's aunt and uncle a gift as a thanks for letting us stay with them before we moved. Husband has already gone on; I leave Friday. We tried to do some home improvement, but they insisted on paying for that.

Suggestions? I'm willing to spend some money, since they saved us having to pay for a hotel.

Dana, maybe a gift basket from a gourmet food shop? Or a gift certificate for dinner for two at a nice local restaurant?

I was taught basic cooking and laundry fairly early on under the theory that I'd have to shift for myself for a while between being cared for by a mother and being cared for by a wife. By late high school, my mother's rule was that she did laundry on a specific day each week, and she'd wash any clothes that were there. Anything at other times was our own responsibility, which really started to matter when I had to wash work uniforms.

I do some things very well and some things -- not so well. I can fold a fitted sheet (but I rarely do). I sort clothes very well. But I can't fold a bra to save my life. And I'm a menace to clothing with a bottle of bleach in my hand.

Of course, first you have to specify what form the distributions take

See, that's the very first thing I thought about while reading the beginning of your paragraph! And I'm not saying that to show off, but because that's where I love to see how studying physics helped shaped my approach to problems.

It sounds really interesting - I'd love to read more about it when I can actually pay attention to what I read, and not stressed with a deadline. Sorry. I didn't mean to be so flaky.

Dana, I like Fred's ideas. Are there any things you can think about that they like and enjoy and would like to have, but don't (for economical reasons, or whatever other reasons)?

Are there any things you can think about that they like and enjoy and would like to have, but don't (for economical reasons, or whatever other reasons)?

I don't think so. They're quite well off, and the only thing that gives me pause about food is that she's very big into organic and raw and blah blah blah. I may see what Whole Foods has, though.

Do they drink? Some fancy organic wine? Or is there some upscale organic-type restaurant they would like?

They do drink wine. Is there fancy organic wine? I have no idea, not being a wine drinker or much of an...organic drinker.

I have been to a fancy organic restaurant where I drank wine. Therefore, I assume such a thing exists! But I don't have any actual recommendations. If you go to a nice wine store, they should have something, I bet.

Oh, yeah, organic wines is totally a big thing now. there's a journal and everything evidently:

[link]

I have already been irritated by a co-worker this morning. I emailed him yesterday to say he'd gotten a package and it was on the front desk. He replied to me this morning. The entirety of his reply? "Yeah"

It took everything I had not to reply either "I think you meant 'thank you'" or just "You're welcome!"

Man, I missed so much Natter.

Allyson, I'm very happy that a solution was found at your work. Clearly, a guy who actually needs two assistants wasn't going to be happy with one, heavily overburdened assistant. Definitely, Not your fault.

Check out this puppy! - they've played with the Daily Puppy format and I like it.