PANDEMIC

I think Paris is the immediate danger, I think NYC has to be buried deeper in the deck. You could get there without burning a card by hopping to St Petersburg. (Sadly, I can't see a way for you to pass Karachi to the CP on your way through.)

PANDEMIC

I could defuse Moscow which would allow the CP to cure black on her turn, but that would take all the CP's actions, preventing her from grabbing One Quiet Night.

One Quiet Night might be more important right now.

PANDEMIC

Have we ever actually drawn Moscow? I think its cubes have all come from outbreaks from Istabul (like St Petersburg and Milan).

I'm pretty sure we drew Paris just before the last epidemic, which means it got shuffled back to the top of the deck at that point. I reckon it has to be coming up either this turn or the next at the latest.

PANDEMIC

Hmmm. Gud, don't we start drawing more disease cards per turn soon?

We already are. It's went up to three when we got our third epidemic.

PANDEMIC

I guess I'll do Paris, and hope for a miracle.

PANDEMIC

The Researcher travels to St. Petersburg, then to Essen, and finally to Paris and a cube of blue plague is banished. Then cards are drawn and the Researcher gains Atlanta(Blue) and Chicago(Blue).

Then plague spreads in Taipei, putting it on the brink, in Mexico City, putting it on the brink, and in Paris, putting it back on the brink.

We survive another day.

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PANDEMIC

I think there's a slim chance. The CP could defuse Moscow, return to St. Petersburg and then One Quiet Night us to the Medic. The Medic can cure red. The Researcher can move to St. Petersburg and cure blue. Then the CP can get a black card from the Researcher and cure black. If none of the six infection cards we draw are New York, then we win. A lucky draw of a Forecast or Airlift event card could really help our odds. An epidemic ends the world, but there's a decent chance we don't draw it.

PANDEMIC

I don't think we even need to worry about Moscow, I don't think we've ever drawn it. That means the only way it gets hit is if we get a different outbreak (and we lose anyway) or an epidemic (and I'm pretty sure that'd kill us too).

I think of the cities on the brink, only New York could have a card near the top of the deck. All the others are already drawn or never drew a card in the first place. If we can defuse it, then I think we'll have time. Let me work this through:

CP: Move to New York and cure a cube (No time for One Quiet Night then)

Medic: Move to St Petersburg, cure Red

Researcher: Move to St Petersburg, cure Blue, bounce to Atlanta

CP: Move to Atlanta, grab last Black card, cure Black

We all go out for mimosas.

I think this will work unless we draw another epidemic. But if we do that, I think we're dead no matter what we try.

What do you think?

PANDEMIC

I'm a little nervous about adding three more infections, but the logic seems sound to me. Moscow is pretty likely to be too deep in the deck to show up.