Yeah, this season I could swear that he sounds different.

His first scene back he was full-on Irish, and I was like. "Wait, what? I didn't think Littlefinger was Irish before. Is my memory that bad?" It's been drifting around the British Isles since then.

People have been commenting on his wandering accent since the first season.

I'm not completely convinced he has a long-term goal other than get everything he didn't have as a child

This is wild to me. He is potentially risking his life at every turn.

But you'd also be risking your life just standing around minding your own business in Westeros. Might be riskier, even.

so, perhaps. I am trying to get a sense of how stable things were before the first ep of the series.

Oh, good point, yes. They did seem more stable to the casual observer, I guess - one king, not actually at war. Littlefinger was privy to the whole "there are still Targaryens out there and they must die" thing that Robert had going on, right?

Also, I think he's the kind of guy who is absolutely certain he will not get caught.

note: I am not trying to contradict your points. I haven't read the books, so I am trying to suss out GRRM's larger themes and if his point is that nearly all characters have fatal flaws and have weaknesses being leaders.

I personally don't care about spoilers FYI. I am still barely hanging on with all the characters but it is better than S1.

Oh, I'm just spouting ideas as they occur to me, I'm not attached any of my answers. It's an interesting question.

Also, I think he's the kind of guy who is absolutely certain he will not get caught.

This. Also he was the money guy, and financed everything by loans, which, I think, says a lot about him. It also meant that he was instrumental in ensuring that everything went to shit on two fronts.

I do think his "chaos is a ladder" quote is sort of his mission statement.

I half wonder if, until the Red Wedding, he wasn't still hoping to get a shot at Catelyn.

Oh, I'm sure he was.