What's at the core of the problem? Being given the chance to switch to a card that has a 1/2 chance of being the right one? I mean, 1/2 if you started from step 2?

You know, this might be one I just accept, or run the numbers on. My big issue is that I want there to be some calculation that gets you from the odds on the first pass to the new odds, and I just can't see it.

What's at the core of the problem? Being given the chance to switch to a card that has a 1/2 chance of being the right one? I mean, 1/2 if you started from step 2?

I think the core of the problem is that the odds don't change. You've got a 1/3 chance of being right, 2/3 chance of being wrong. Suppose they don't tell you "door 2 is not a car." They just say, "You can stay where you are, or you can switch to doors 2 and 3. If either of those is a car, you get it; if neither of them is, you don't." That's an equivalent problem -- knowing which door of 2 and 3 is the one without a car doesn't change anything.

Aha! All the potential lives in the one card. I'd still rather see some multiplication, but I can live with that.

Think of it from Charlie's point of view. You pick one card from three. That leaves Charlie with three possible combinations of two cards:

goat/goat
car/goat
goat/car

Charlie reveals a goat card. The three possibilities for his hidden card are reduced to:

goat
car
car

If you switch with Charlie you go from one chance in three to win, to two chances in three.

I also need to start working on the Miracleborns. What, 6 hours in the car with a baby could be fun!

Specially now that we have the Miracleborn Stealth MiniVan.

Tim, the manager of Emmett's Little League Team, is gone this weekend so I'm running the team.

The last time I was in charge of running the team Emmett broke his nose.

Wish me some safe-ma today.

On the plus side, I get to set the pitching and positions for today and tomorrow's game. Fantasy Manager Land!

JZ continues her community service (for parking tix) by spending all day at a Circus Arts Benefits performance. It's a long day, but on the whole considerably more fun than picking up trash along the freeway.

And tomorrow is our paper anniversary.

Hec, I sent JZ an email about this, but we need to figure out tomorrow. When would be a good time to call her?

Cereal:

Yay for Stealth minivans! And safe-ma to you and the team, Hec.

Timelies all!

Started the day by having a bottle of shower gel slip out of my hands and hit me in the foot, cap side down.(Hard enough to raise a welt =and= draw blood)Walking's a little unfun at the moment.

We went looking at houses today. One serious contender among the single-family homes.

Hey, it's JZ. I'm just fixing lunch; call me in 15?