Let's say that the car is in door 1. If you picked door 1, then you'll get it if you stay. If you picked door 2 or door 3, then you'll get the car if you switch. There's a 1/3 chance you picked right on that first try, but a 2/3 chance you picked wrong, so in 1/3 of the cases you'll get the car if you stay, but in 2/3 you'll get it if you switch.
Oh, I get it. You just don't like who did the rescuing, that's all. Wishin' I was your boyfriend what's-his-height. Oh wait, he's run off.
Spike ,'Potential'
What Happens in Natter 35 Stays in Natter 35
Off-topic discussion. Wanna talk about corsets, duct tape, or physics? This is the place. Detailed discussion of any current-season TV must be whitefonted.
Hil R. - May 14, 2005 7:51:03 am PDT #4160 of 10001
Sometimes I think I might just move up to Vermont, open a bookstore or a vegan restaurant. Adam Schlesinger, z''l
Stephanie - May 14, 2005 7:53:58 am PDT #4161 of 10001
Trust my rage
I'm glad others are confused because I din't get it last night.
§ ita § - May 14, 2005 7:56:04 am PDT #4162 of 10001
Well not canonically, no, but this is transformative fiction.
What's at the core of the problem? Being given the chance to switch to a card that has a 1/2 chance of being the right one? I mean, 1/2 if you started from step 2?
You know, this might be one I just accept, or run the numbers on. My big issue is that I want there to be some calculation that gets you from the odds on the first pass to the new odds, and I just can't see it.
Hil R. - May 14, 2005 8:00:33 am PDT #4163 of 10001
Sometimes I think I might just move up to Vermont, open a bookstore or a vegan restaurant. Adam Schlesinger, z''l
What's at the core of the problem? Being given the chance to switch to a card that has a 1/2 chance of being the right one? I mean, 1/2 if you started from step 2?
I think the core of the problem is that the odds don't change. You've got a 1/3 chance of being right, 2/3 chance of being wrong. Suppose they don't tell you "door 2 is not a car." They just say, "You can stay where you are, or you can switch to doors 2 and 3. If either of those is a car, you get it; if neither of them is, you don't." That's an equivalent problem -- knowing which door of 2 and 3 is the one without a car doesn't change anything.
§ ita § - May 14, 2005 8:03:59 am PDT #4164 of 10001
Well not canonically, no, but this is transformative fiction.
Aha! All the potential lives in the one card. I'd still rather see some multiplication, but I can live with that.
dcp - May 14, 2005 8:15:44 am PDT #4165 of 10001
The more I learn, the more I realize how little I know.
Think of it from Charlie's point of view. You pick one card from three. That leaves Charlie with three possible combinations of two cards:
goat/goat
car/goat
goat/car
Charlie reveals a goat card. The three possibilities for his hidden card are reduced to:
goat
car
car
If you switch with Charlie you go from one chance in three to win, to two chances in three.
Aims - May 14, 2005 8:26:01 am PDT #4166 of 10001
Shit's all sorts of different now.
I also need to start working on the Miracleborns. What, 6 hours in the car with a baby could be fun!
Specially now that we have the Miracleborn Stealth MiniVan.
DavidS - May 14, 2005 9:17:47 am PDT #4167 of 10001
"Look, son, if it's good enough for Shirley Bassey, it's good enough for you."
Tim, the manager of Emmett's Little League Team, is gone this weekend so I'm running the team.
The last time I was in charge of running the team Emmett broke his nose.
Wish me some safe-ma today.
On the plus side, I get to set the pitching and positions for today and tomorrow's game. Fantasy Manager Land!
JZ continues her community service (for parking tix) by spending all day at a Circus Arts Benefits performance. It's a long day, but on the whole considerably more fun than picking up trash along the freeway.
And tomorrow is our paper anniversary.
Lee - May 14, 2005 9:28:48 am PDT #4168 of 10001
The feeling you get when your brain finally lets your heart get in its pants.
Hec, I sent JZ an email about this, but we need to figure out tomorrow. When would be a good time to call her?
Lee - May 14, 2005 9:29:40 am PDT #4169 of 10001
The feeling you get when your brain finally lets your heart get in its pants.
Cereal:
Yay for Stealth minivans! And safe-ma to you and the team, Hec.