Hey, aren't you supposed to be paying me large sums of money to rid you of troublesome alien souls?

a religion started by a hack SF writer

See, you know Whitley Streiber's kicking himself. He writes Wolfen, and then The Hunger, and then he writes Communion and people BELIEVE it. He's gotta be thinking "Why did I get people to believe in aliens, rather than in my whacked-out religion? Where's the percentage?"

(and when Sean and Jessica post in sequence, their tags crack me up)

Lots of articles are bemoaning the drop in cinema ticket purchases, and blaming DVDs is at the top of the list of reasons. But I also see that DVD sales are dropping to single digit growth for the first time in forever -- I wonder -- are movies doing worse overall? I mean, if the main ways to see movies break down thusly:

• Theatre (first run and cheapie)
• DVD (own or rent)
• Pay cable (HBO, Cinemax, whatever)
• TV

Is the total of viewers down, or is the distributions shifting to transmitted movies, pretty long after the release date?

Is the total of viewers down, or is the distributions shifting to transmitted movies, pretty long after the release date?

I think the latter is true. But most articles just focus on the decline of folks seeing movies in the theatre.

But I also see that DVD sales are dropping to single digit growth for the first time in forever

Is that all types of DVDs, or just DVDs of movies? The only reason I ask is because I could see if people were buying full season or series runs of DVDs, then they might be investing more time in less product, so to speak. I also wonder how big a phenom Netflix (and its imitators) has become in terms of impacting sales.

Lots of articles are bemoaning the drop in cinema ticket purchases, and blaming DVDs is at the top of the list of reasons.

The phenomena is worldwide, by the way.

My own take is that in recently there have been a few anomaly movies -- especially Lord of the Rings and Passion of the Christ -- that made the past few years bigger than they normally would have been.

There was some survey a few weeks back (that I linked to) that said that a large % of movie viewers say they don't see as many movies in the theaters these days because the quality of movies isn't as great.

Also, I wonder how many people tend to wait for the DVDs because they have fancy home entertainment systems with wide screens....

And piracy -- I forgot piracy.

My own take is that in recently there have been a few anomaly movies -- especially Lord of the Rings and Passion of the Christ -- that made the past few years bigger than they normally would have been.

This sounds very plausible. If the industry is sitting around betting on regular exception events, well, not that safe.

they don't see as many movies in the theaters these days because the quality of movies isn't as great.

Also, I wonder how many people tend to wait for the DVDs because they have fancy home entertainment systems with wide screens....

Which makes me think - why do I see movies in the theatre? Because a) I NEED TO SEE IT NOW (which is akin to your first point) or b) it needs to be seen on the big screen.

My TV's not that big (27", I think), and I have no fancy sound system. But even if I had one of the big jobbie dos, I wouldn't wait to see a big visual movie on it -- I'd just enjoy watching it on it again more.

a large % of movie viewers say they don't see as many movies in the theaters these days because the quality of movies isn't as great.

I don't think movies qua movies are necessarily any worse -- there seems to have always been a lot of forgettable dreck. But the price of movie tickets keeps going up, while wages are pretty stable, and working three or four hours to earn the money to see a crappy movie is a different proposition than working one hour or 45 minutes to see one. Less value for your time.

Or maybe it's that TV has gotten better, while movies are pretty much on a level plane, which tilts the balance toward staying hoime and watching TV.

Which makes me think - why do I see movies in the theatre?

I do it for the social experience, either for the groupthink blockbuster or as a venue for going out with a friend. On some occasions I do it for the movie alone, because I know I want to see it and I just can't wait, but that isn't terribly common.

I know that the fact that DVDs come out 3-6 months after theatrical release, rather than 1-2 years after, makes a difference in my theatre-viewing.

I also suspect that the amount of information available about movies -- gossip, buzz, the plethora of reviews and advance screenings -- are such that my ability to know whether I'll like a movie are not is pinpoint-accurate. (Hence the surprise at disliking Batman. ) Better ability to predict means going to fewer movies overall, and my geenral tendency is "if there's only a 60% chance I'll like it, wait for video." Which, see point #2.