And piracy -- I forgot piracy.

My own take is that in recently there have been a few anomaly movies -- especially Lord of the Rings and Passion of the Christ -- that made the past few years bigger than they normally would have been.

This sounds very plausible. If the industry is sitting around betting on regular exception events, well, not that safe.

they don't see as many movies in the theaters these days because the quality of movies isn't as great.

Also, I wonder how many people tend to wait for the DVDs because they have fancy home entertainment systems with wide screens....

Which makes me think - why do I see movies in the theatre? Because a) I NEED TO SEE IT NOW (which is akin to your first point) or b) it needs to be seen on the big screen.

My TV's not that big (27", I think), and I have no fancy sound system. But even if I had one of the big jobbie dos, I wouldn't wait to see a big visual movie on it -- I'd just enjoy watching it on it again more.

a large % of movie viewers say they don't see as many movies in the theaters these days because the quality of movies isn't as great.

I don't think movies qua movies are necessarily any worse -- there seems to have always been a lot of forgettable dreck. But the price of movie tickets keeps going up, while wages are pretty stable, and working three or four hours to earn the money to see a crappy movie is a different proposition than working one hour or 45 minutes to see one. Less value for your time.

Or maybe it's that TV has gotten better, while movies are pretty much on a level plane, which tilts the balance toward staying hoime and watching TV.

Which makes me think - why do I see movies in the theatre?

I do it for the social experience, either for the groupthink blockbuster or as a venue for going out with a friend. On some occasions I do it for the movie alone, because I know I want to see it and I just can't wait, but that isn't terribly common.

I know that the fact that DVDs come out 3-6 months after theatrical release, rather than 1-2 years after, makes a difference in my theatre-viewing.

I also suspect that the amount of information available about movies -- gossip, buzz, the plethora of reviews and advance screenings -- are such that my ability to know whether I'll like a movie are not is pinpoint-accurate. (Hence the surprise at disliking Batman. ) Better ability to predict means going to fewer movies overall, and my geenral tendency is "if there's only a 60% chance I'll like it, wait for video." Which, see point #2.

Hey, aren't you supposed to be paying me large sums of money to rid you of troublesome alien souls?

Here's a twenty....

Is the total of viewers down, or is the distributions shifting to transmitted movies, pretty long after the release date?

My theory is that movies need to stop sucking.

I wonder how many people tend to wait for the DVDs because they have fancy home entertainment systems with wide screens....

DVD's are coming out a lot faster too. My guess is that 3-4 months after the movie dwindles at the theater it is available to rent. (I also hate paying $8 to see a movie knowing that the same amount of money can allow me to rent 2-3 movies at the same price.)

On a completely different topic, has anyone seen Me & You & Everyone We Know? I'm supposed to see it tonight. It looks like it might be very good, but might also be irritatingly precious.

ita's way of choosing movies to see is ours. If it doesn't need to be seen on the big screen or RIGHT NOW! then we wait for DVD. We have plasma TV's and a good sound system. This, versus forking over $40 - $50 for the 4 of us to go to the movies for PG 13 and below or we have to get a sitter (much more difficult on the boat!) and end up paying as much or more for the two of us to see an R rated movie. It's a weighty decision many times. If the prices were lower we might be tempted to see more movies at the theater.

I can be terribly distractible, so I like that in the theater I have to sit and watch the film from beginning to end. At home I end up surfing the web or petting the dog or stopping to get a beverage or whatever.

No one really seems to know what's driving the lower B.O. I mean, Passion is part of it, but the last fucking STAR WARS came out this year. And a new Batman! NYC movie ticket prices have been pretty stable-- around $10 since, what? 1999? I think it's DVDs. I would never collect videotapes, but DVDs are cheap, small, and have tons of extras. My TV has pretty good sound and a nice screen. Not to mention, I have 20 some movie channels. I even cancelled my subscription to Netflix because I have so many goddamn choices.

Personally I've never downloaded a movie. I find it hard to believe that something that requires such a huge investment in time, equipment and service (fast computer, fast data line, access to knowledge of how to even do it, which I don't) not to mention having to watch something on your computer that could have been filmed by someone's camcorder is really causing people to avoid spending $10. I don't buy it. This is a country where people happily part with $3-4 for COFFEE.

ETA: of course, that's $10 pp. I didn't think about what it costs families, but I still maintain the prices have been stagnant.

Personally I've never downloaded a movie. I find it hard to believe that something that requires such a huge investment in time, equipment and service (fast computer, fast data line, access to knowledge of how to even do it, which I don't) not to mention having to watch something on your computer that could have been filmed by someone's camcorder is really causing people to avoid spending $10.

No shit. And I work among geeks -- I've been offered precisely two pirated movies in the past three years (one of which I accepted, but I'd already seen the movie and bought the DVD the day it came out, so they got their money from me).

I like seeing movies in the theatre, a lot. It helps that I have no problem watching them alone, have no sitting to arrange, and rarely buy concessions. I just end up not quite having the time -- but like Robin, I watch them better in the theatre. Straight through, no napping or phone calls or web.