I could see Depp getting a "Here's a safe, well-done Depp role to vote for, even though what we really liked him in was PotC but all the other critics will laugh and laugh if we give him an Oscar for that" best actor award.

Or I could just be channelling, well, me.

From what I've read of the various Oscar odds, I think Lyra Jane is right on the money. Best picture might go to Million Dollar Baby, though, due to both its own strengths, as well as the "well, Eastwood didn't get it last year for Mystic River, so since he produced an equally good movie this year, it's definitely his turn" factor. I think that Bening also has the same factor for going up against Swank again--the voters will give it to her this year, especially since another young actress got the Best Actress award last year.

I haven't seen "Ray", but I thought JF knocked it out of the park in "Collateral". Has anyone ever won Best Actor(Actress) and Best Supporting in the same year?

I don't think so, Anne. I do remember the kerfuffle that arose when Sigourney Weaver, who had been nommed for both Actress (Gorillas in the Mist) and Supporting Actress (Working Girl) got shut out of both--that was the first time a double nominee was completely shut out. But, I don't think that anyone's gotten both awards in the same year.

I could see Depp getting a "Here's a safe, well-done Depp role to vote for, even though what we really liked him in was PotC but all the other critics will laugh and laugh if we give him an Oscar for that" best actor award.

Critics don't vote for the Oscars, though -- the voting is done by members of each branch. Depp was nominated last year for PotC, and didn't win. It's possible he could get it, but honestly I don't think this is his year.

It used to be a pretty strong rule of thumb that the actor who had the best "overcoming misfortune" part got the Oscar. (Hence Tom Hanks for "Forrest Gump," Geoffrey Rush for "Shine," etc.) I don't know if that still holds true, but if it does, Foxx will win. I don't think his lack of a body of work will be that large of a handicap.

I don't think his lack of a body of work will be that large of a handicap.

I hope not. I don't think Oscars should be based on cumulative work.

I'd also love it if JF got both awards, because then he'd be the first person to win (assuming that's the case) regardless of race.

I haven't seen Ray yet, but from the clips I have seen I'd say Foxx has Best Actor sewn up. I forgot I was looking at someone other than Ray Charles for a minute, whereas it's been years since Leonardo DiCaprio has convinced me that he's anyone other than himself. (Which did make the end of Titanic more enjoyable for me, I'll admit...)

the voting is done by members of each branch.

Legislative, judicial, and executive? Or, um, not I guess. Do you mean actors, directors, writers, techies, etc?

It's possible he could get it, but honestly I don't think this is his year.

I'm inclined to agree. I think he did a great job with his role in Neverland, but I don't think the role itself was all that.

I finally got around to seeing him in Man in the Iron Mask over the weekend (well, most of it), and boy, was he annoyingly bad in it! Actually, all the actors were not at their best, especially the four Musketeers.

Do you mean actors, directors, writers, techies, etc?

Yes. And then everyone votes for best movie. (I think. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong.)

here's the iMDb's list of past winners, in case that helps anyone else handicap winners.