Fivethirtyeight has released its forecasting model:

[link]

(I'm not entirely sold on the design, it feels like dumbing it down.) It currently gives Trump a 28% chance, which sounds about right to me. If the election were held today, it'd give Biden a 93% chance, which also sounds about right.

Can we please have the election today? I want this over with so very much.

I'm more worried about what happens when Biden wins and Trump refuses to leave office.

It isn't going to be pretty, but I don't think the GOP or Justice will stand with him at that point. I hope.

I think the election will be won or lost in the courts this year.

It isn't going to be pretty, but I don't think the GOP or Justice will stand with him at that point.

I dunno. If Fox News and its like are out there pushing how the Dems are an existential threat to the country and that the election was fraudulent, that may cow the GOP in backing not accepting the results. Barr already has voiced his opinion that the Dems are an existential threat.

It isn't going to be pretty, but I don't think the GOP or Justice will stand with him at that point.

I think the GOP absolutely will support him. Because he's their only means of staying in power, and they know that.

I believe the someone high up in the military—I want to say one of the Joint Chiefs—indicated they would not be backing any further extra-Constitutional shenanigans from Trump after his walk to the church debacle last month. And if it comes down to a showdown, I'll back the Marines over anyone Homeland Security can dig up for physically controlling the White House. I mean, Homeland Security got their asses handed to them in Portland by suburban Moms and old vets with leaf blowers. (No disrespect to moms or vets—I just think most Marines are better armed.)

But it sucks that this is even a consideration in an alleged democracy.

I believe the someone high up in the military—I want to say one of the Joint Chiefs—said they would not be backing any further extra-Constitutional shenanigans from Trump after his walk to the church debacle last month.

POTUS can "fire" any of the Joint Chiefs, though. I just really don't trust Trump or the GOP at this point. I think Trump and the GOP will do anything to remain in power.

Plus I also worry that if Trump refuses to leave office but is forcibly removed by the military, we're looking at actual goddamn civil war in this country. That's not hyperbole. Angry racist wingnut Trumpers with assault rifles scare me more than just about anything.

I'm more worried about a Bush v. Gore kind of thing where the Supreme Court nibbles away at state-level results until Trump has an electoral majority and screw the popular majority. The precedent, alas, is there.