I think we are going to get it for 4 more years.

The Princeton Election Consortium gives him basically a zero percent chance of winning, based on current polling.

Ugh on the work stuff, msbelle.

I am so afraid of the 4 more years, msbelle. And I don't know how to turn it into useful prep or prevention or whatever. I mean, here it is about 5 pm and I am ready to go to bed, so my ability to change anything seems pretty low

Princeton Election Commission gave him a less than 1% chance of winning in 2016 too, the day before the election. Their lead guy was the one who said he would eat his hat if Trump won, then actually did it.

538 on the other hand had Trump a 35% chance. They are who I will have some mild confidence in. But I would be shocked if we ever drop below a 20% Trump chance, which is still a solid 1/5, and the asshole is lucky a lot.

The Princeton Election Consortium gives him basically a zero percent chance of winning, based on current polling.

I worry what he will do if he figures out he isn't going to win. We have more than 3 months before the election for him to cause damage, then we have to deal with him until January no matter what. I've stopped thinking things can't get any worse, because I keep being proven wrong.

It would be great if he fled the country to somewhere without an extradition treaty. I'd be sorry not to see his ass marched to jail, but if it meant that he was gone and we never had to hear about him again, I'd take it.

I still think Trump has a very good chance of winning. There's still a lot of time before the election and if the COVID numbers start to get better, and the economic numbers sound like they are improving, then things could look very different by then.

Trump is going to have a ton of dark money on his side, Biden will pick a VP that can be targeted in ways Biden can't. Factor is voter suppression effects and I think he could easily get a slim margin in the handful of states that will actually factor in.

I keep thinking that, should there be a blue wave in November, it might be worth having all but a couple of the Dem senators, like, relocate to Honolulu to deny a quorum in the senate, so that they can deny a quorum, so that they can't do a big push of confirming 25 year old judges and bullshit like that.

But that's, like, 5 "what if"s down the road.

And RBG is back in the hospital. I do not like this at all.

I recall Nate Silver taking a lot of heat for saying Hillary's win wasn't a foregone conclusion on the eve of the election, but look who turned out to be right.

It did! And in more happy news, four members of the Horde are moving to Washington, and my sister has left Texas for Denver.

Yay! I miss Denver. It's weird to think I won't be there at ALL this year.