Another Saturday, another academic shit to write. Meh. Need to get coffee in order to do that.

And thanks for the new tagline, Laga.

I've mixed feelings on the overreactions. The speed with which the H1N1 bloomed and the ratio of deaths to infections in Mexico was alarming.

Compare it to a forest fire. If there is a potential for a massive forest going up and you have an opportunity to put out a small fire to prevent it, it might be best to aggressively stamp hard on any flying embers ASAP.

The pandemic 1918 was bad, but we have global air travel now. Even if this is a bust, we better get used to it. A pandemic is probably inevitable until everyone has everyone's germs. (Although that is statistically improbable).

Related, from the Boing Boing: [link]

Israel talks of banning the term 'swine flu', while the Church of England apparently has no comment on the impending apocalypse. But then, we're deny-y people here in foggy England.

(Above link courtesy of one of my favourite sites, Ship of Fools. Which currently cites 'chance of rapture' at 72%, up to 2% this week because of the increased possibility of plagues. Heh.)

My first attempt at this post got eaten because of bad code. Trying again.

But the 1918 epidemic started out mild and mutated into something deadly. Somewhere between 20 and 40 million people died in it.

That was close to a century ago. The standards of living and medical care, throughout the entire developed world, were vastly different than they are now. In 1918, the US -- and the rest of the world -- was recovering from World War I, with widespread poverty, hunger, and unsanitary living conditions, coupled with no available antibiotics (a very large amount of flu deaths are from secondary bacterial infections that set in after the initial flu infection) or flu medications or modern medical care.

So pretty much I'd say that if the CDC says we need to do it. We need to do it.

I think it's a big mistake to assume that the CDC is infallible. They also estimated that avian flu could kill 60 million people worldwide. That was back in 2006.

I'm not saying the CDC is ignorant, or totally mistaken. But I think there's an enormous amount of overreaction going on with the swine flu right now, and even the CDC isn't exempt from that.

I is a certified emergency call taker! My now ex-coach brought cupcakes :) *bounce*

heh, and we have new sticky notes on the medicaly triage guides to help us screen for particularly virulent flu patients. Good times!

Congrats, erin!

In 1918, the US -- and the rest of the world -- was recovering from World War I, with widespread poverty, hunger, and unsanitary living conditions, coupled with no available antibiotics (a very large amount of flu deaths are from secondary bacterial infections that set in after the initial flu infection) or flu medications or modern medical care.

Aside from the WWI part, this describes a large part of the world today. The top three killers of children in developing countries are respiratory infections, diarrhea diseases, and malaria, and almost all of these deaths could be prevented with improved sanitation and access to modern medical care (and bed nets). (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs272/en/). The conditions in the US and other developed countries might not be optimal hosts to a new superflu. But if the flu mutates in Mexico (or Indonesia or Benin) and becomes something more severe than the current strain, it could get bad. 'Cause viruses don't care about borders.

Of course, we also have the example of the last swine flu scare where Congress bowed to pressure from the drug companies to absolve them of liability so they could develope a vaccine faster and then... a bunch of people died from the vaccine and none (besides the initially identified case) from the flu. Oops.

Of course, this flu has already spread further than that one -- its just a good cautionary tale on "don't go nuts." Excessive school closures early on seem like a preferable overreaction. Its possible that isolating the population at Fort Dix is what kept it from spreading in '76.