BSG

There's a 0 Distance card in Pegasus, but not the base game.

Here's how the stats work on the 3 Distance cards. If you don't get any 3D cards, that means that your first and second draws were both 1D/2D. There are 18 such cards out of 23.

The chance the first card was 1D/2D, then, is 18/23. Assume for a moment that's what happened. Now we draw the second card. We've drawn one already, so there are 22 cards left in the deck. 17 of them are 1D/2D. The chance the second card is also not a 3D is 17/22.

To get the chance we don't draw a 3D, then, we multiply the chance the first card wasn't by the chance the second card wasn't (given that the first card wasn't). That's 18/23*17/22, which is about 60%. If the odds of getting no 3D is 60%, we must have a 40% chance that at least one card was a 3D.

BSG

Well, my instinct would be just to do it now, but I'm fine with waiting if Boomer is.

BSG

If we don't let Boomer spring herself this turn, she's going to have to discard between 2 and 4 cards after her turn is over as she's at 14 now. (If she has an XO or Scout she can play, that'll use up one. And if we get a playable crisis that she has colors for, that will use another.)

On the other hand, the fact that Zarek's got his mugshot deal, makes it seem a little risky to free her now instead of waiting.

Then again, we still don't know who is a toaster, so Zarek could be one and lie to us to get us to either free a toaster or to keep a human in the brig.

So after all that, I say spring her now while we've only got a couple of basestars to worry about and there's less dastardly things for her to potentially do if she is a toaster.

BSG

Isn't the mugshot a 50/50 shot at best? Assuming you even pick the right person to begin with. I'm not sure why we would even suspect Boomer over someone else at this point.

I also have a lot of cards, which is why I'd rather do a check now.

BSG

The mugshot deal is indeed a 50/50 shot. I'm inclined to think Boonmer is not a cylon because of how cool she is being about us taking our time but when I was a cylon Boomer in the brig I was very polite too and the humans were right not to spring me.

I'm not sure if I'm leaning towards waiting just because I haven't gotten to use any of my quorum cards yet.

BSG

Laga/Zarek, if you're vacillating, you could offer to lower the brig difficulty for Boomer--that would lower it to 5. If she has 1 card of the right color that's worth 5 (and with all the cards she has, that's possible), she can get herself out without anyone else losing cards to the effort. Me, I still vote mugshots, personally, but that's a possibility.

(This is actually what I wanted to do when I played Zarek and you played Boomer, but I was never online when you played your turn *cries* Of course, I WAS a Cylon when I played Zarek--although I was a really inept one.)

Well, that assuming someone doesn't spike the check.

Personally, I have no problem with using a card or two for the debrigging if we decide it makes sense.

BSG

I will help Boomer get sprung provided at least one of her loyalty cards does not say cylon.

If Boomer were to XO me I might be able to return the favor but I don't currently have an XO.

I believe Boomer has no Green so I doubt that she could XO someone.

Ah rats. Still I think it's worth the wait for the 50/50 peek.