Susan, if people knew when and how bad recessions will be in the future, then they wouldn't happen in the first place.

I tend to be pessimistic about things, and I do think there will be recession soon. But even if I'm right about that, there's no way to know how bad it will be, and how long it will last.

Furthermore, recessions affect the economy in general, and tell you very little how it will affect particular individuals or companies. There are lots of companies that make out nicely during recessions.

And paying down your debt and having a diversified portfolio is always a good idea.

Susan, my thinking is that a person in their mid-30's is still looking at another 20-30 years of work, so I would count on being able to ride out any possible future recession.

Our 401Ks are based on age, so they're typically more agressive. We're planning on switching them when we hit our late 40's, but we're also hoping to be able to retire in our late 50's based on our short mortgage, combined with DH's pension and his substantial 401k.

Bad enough that a person should hang onto his steady but underpaying public sector job when there's a chance of something with a much higher salary in a fairly stable corner of the private sector, and the raise would *really* come in handy for clearing some nasty debt left over from the LAST economic downturn?

If the private sector job is pretty stable, then it sounds pretty good, but I wouldn't want to give advice with so many variables.

I don't know what the basis is for a long term recession. The subprime lending market is collapsing which might lead to a housing downturn, but I don't know that means there will be a big recession. Energy prices are going to go up driven by demand for oil, but that will also mean investment in other types of energy which could be good. The U.S. is the Middle East of coal. I'm concerned about the outsourcing the jobs to other places, but the statistics don't seem real alarming there.

Of course, everybody sucks at predicting the economy.

Are billytea and I the only two people on the planet who don't wish they'd eloped?

Nope. Our wedding was great. I kinda wish I'd had a bachlorette party (none of my friends felt like organizing one, and no, Pete didn't have a bachlor party either), but otherwise, it was wonderful.

I think that if we attack Iran and Iran succeeds in bottling up shipping in the gulf (which they've threatened to do if we attack) I think there will be huge world-wide oil shortages leading to a pretty bad recession.

But supposedly Bush had said he won't attack Iran this year....

I'd stick with stocks for the 401k. You are decades out from retirement and if the stock market dives in the short-term, you are buying in low.

One Perfect Day: The Selling of the American Wedding

I've added this to my Amazon Wish List. Surprised I hadn't thought to look for such books before - normally when I'm in crisis, the first thing I do is buy books about it. "Crisis" is a bit of a strong word here, but nonetheless, I always feel better about things if I can intellectualize them.

Recession? No clue, though I have been keeping an optimistic eye on the housing market. We pay an astonishing amount in rent each month (astonishing for here - cheap if you're a New Yorker).

I think we've all learned a valuable lesson here...

TIME TO GO THROW A BACHELORETTE PARTY FOR JILLI & PLEI

Investing is for the long run, so there really isn't any reason to not to stay with age-appropriate risk. If you're putting a set amount of money into something such as a 401K, a downturn in the market only means you get more stock for your money. I don't think a private sector job is necessarily more risky that a public sector job, particularly since a recession reduces tax income. The collapse of the subprime market is hurting the economy, but how badly? Who knows? Not the economists, historically.

Investing is for the long run, so there really isn't any reason to not to stay with age-appropriate risk. If you're putting a set amount of money into something such as a 401K, a downturn in the market only means you get more stock for your money.

Pointing and nodding