Personally, I don't totally like this analysis, because all the probabilities are built on the assumption that there's an equal chance of any outcome -- pretty much, when calculating how much power a citizen of Ohio has to influence the election, it goes with the assumption that there's an equal chance that California will go Democrat or Republican.
See, I really like this kind of analysis, but ultimately it's answering a different question (I like to think of it as a 'value/power of a single vote' sort of thing, different from an 'impact on the expected outcome' thing), because of the issue given above. The small states tend to share certain features; most notably, an absence of large urban centres. Because voting tendencies aren't (mathematically) independent by geographical factors, the additional weighting towards the small states skews the outcome. In 2000, and I think 2004, if you took out the 'plus two' in the calculation of EC votes, the outcome would've been different.
the majority of the vote gets all the electoral members of a state. then the majority of those votes determines the winner. it just feels wrong in a close election.
Yeah, I agree with this. Maine and Nebraska do it differently, FWIW. There's nothing to prevent a state from apportioning its EC votes by a method other than 'winner-take-all'.
I totally think Fay should just come to the US and couch surf for a few months!!
I'd vote for this.
It would be good if people who agree with me were required to vote. The others can decide for themselves. Actually, I like the idea of voting being obligatory, but I can't imagine it ever happening here. There have been a surprisingly large number of people that I otherwise consider responsible citizens that have told me they never vote. I don't get it.
I am home and I am so damned glad. Cats have been fed, watered, relittered and reassured that I am really home and didn't abandon them forever and ever. I have started a fire. It is hailing outside. And I think it is bedtime. Apparently my internal clock is in Greenland.
Cass, I've got you friended on LJ, but I don't think you friended me back. I'm arliss there.
Beverly, done. I thought I had done that before. Whoops! The rant is here:
[link]
You're the grownup who never lies to her. You're the grownup who is always kind to her. You're the grownup who is happy and loving and considerate. And when she lives through this rediculous pergatory, which she will, YOU are the reason she will know what a good and beautiful person SHE can be.
Thank you, Trudy.
In my heart I just feel like it's not enough for her right now. And I am just not permitted to do more. Once I get a few days to calm down, I might try to talk with the stepmom. She does know that I am here for her and that I won't lie to her. And I know that it is better than the alternative. I just would feel better if I could talk to her more than once every four months. There's a limit to how much writing cards and letters that she gets once a week can do.
Sigh...
Is there any way that they'd give the neicelet to you?
Not a chance in hell. But I would. I so would, Deena.
Though my sister offered to send me the nephlet.
IIRC, WA's been talking about making some elections absentee ballot only.
Didn't another state do that? Oregon, maybe?
::whistles::
Damn. I need to register to vote here. If they've got a Permanent Absentee option? I am so taking it.
beth, lots of -ma for Matt's mom.
Just got off the phone with the Democrats. Seems I've volunteered to be our block captain for this year's election.
My tendency towards weird-ass dreams is continuing. Last night's included Natalie Imbruglia and Snoop Dogg.
I believe mail-in ballot is all they have in Oregon.
Go, you!
I'm home all day--so I've got the time. Plus, this will be a good way to meet the people that I've lived by for nearly 7 years.
Health~ma to Matt's mom.
{{Cass}} And what Trudy said.
Thanks, Cass.
beth, all good thoughts to Matt and his mom--and to you, too.
We had a thunderstorm go through late this afternoon and the temp has plunged plummeted. Shivery now. Gonna go put on long pants and sleeves, and light a few candles.
