There isn't one obvious Oscar-Blockbuster though, it's true.

I can't see Narnia or Kong winning anything but tech awards, especially after last year's LotR sweep.

I have only seen one of those (Brokeback), and it's not that big a release, is it? I mean, it is playing at the Harvard Theatre, which is usually a sign that it does not have Art House Wait For DVD tattooed on its forehead, but it's not playing on 2500 screens either.

I guess King Kong did have some good reviews, didn't it? I just have exactly zero interest in its subject matter.

I don't think Oscar voters will vote in a children's movie as best picture, whatever its pedigree. Even LOTR, which was often called adolescent fodder, had actual adults as its main characters, which is not the case for Narnia.

I found it too self-aware to be successful.

Oh, I understand. I've seen very little Freaks and Geeks but it had struck me as a conventionally made drama about mundane incidents, rather than a drama striving for a fly-on-the-wall-look-into-the-lives-of-people-waiting-for-bus feel. Do you feel the same way about everything that is aiming for realism, like, say, The Office?

ETA. Sorry for sounding like a questionnaire

I have only seen one of those (Brokeback), and it's not that big a release, is it?

Not yet -- it goes wide mid-January. (It's in limited release right now for Oscar qualification.)

Do you feel the same way about everything that is obviously aiming for realism

No, only the ones that miss. :)

Millie and the basset hound! Love!

I can't see Narnia or Kong winning anything but tech awards, especially after last year's LotR sweep.

That was two years ago, though, right?

I mean, it is playing at the Harvard Theatre, which is usually a sign that it does not have Art House Wait For DVD tattooed on its forehead, but it's not playing on 2500 screens either.

I keep reading reports that it's going to open in wide release soon. Anyone know if that's ever going to happen? [Edit: x-post!] It's gotten so much press, it seems to me, that I'm surprised it hasn't opened everywhere already. Anyway, that's my pick for this year's biggest award-sweeper (unless Kong or Narnia sweep the technical awards).

That was two years ago, though, right?

Well if you're going to be all accurate about it, sure...

Does Brokeback have to be in wide release to be a shoo-in? It's certainly a critical fave.

I don't think KK or Narnia will win; but I think they are likely nominees and in a different year, would win by default. YMMV.

As far as Brokeback, I didn't even know it wasn't in wide release. Probably my coastal myopia. I went to see it Sunday night after it had been out for three weeks here and the 9:15 showing was sold out at least 30 minutes in advance; the 10:15 looked to be sold out as well.* I looked at a bunch of critics' year-end wrapups to make the list and every one discussed Brokeback. So it seems like it's big here in Chelsea, but maybe NSM in Peoria.

*Not that I'm denying that it being a holiday, the night before a likely holiday, and the only theater showing the movie in Chelsea had something to do with that.

Does Brokeback have to be in wide release to be a shoo-in?

Oh, I agree that it's probably a shoo-in. But I think it's too early to call it a "big movie" when most of the country hasn't had a chance to turn it down.