You'd have to discount how good The Inside is to just brush it aside as unable to take a chunk of CSI's audience.
Not at all. Wonderfalls was great; quality was not the issue when it was canceled. Now you can say that comparing CSI to Wonderfalls is comparing apples to oranges, but unless I completely missed your argument you are saying that there's enough similarity between CSI and The Inside that it's more a comparison between types of apples and that the 20 million Red Delicious lovers who watch the former contain a bunch of Macintosh lovers who'd be delighted to switch to the latter. And you're almost certainly right. The question is, how big does that chunk of Macintosh lovers need to be to satisfy Fox?
If The Inside grabs 5 million viewers then CSI goes from a top 2 program to a lower-top 10 show. Some of the O.C. audience (roughly 7 million viewers) will watch either CSI or the Apprentice. For the sake of argument (yes, I'm making up the numbers that follow), and ease of computation, let's say that 2 million OC/CSI watchers stick around for The Inside, but a million Apprentice watchers leave. So we have 6 million of the 7 million tuning in, plus 3 million more disgruntled CSI watchers (the 5 mil posited above minus the overlap 2 million), which makes 9 million and which would have put it at #16 last week. Hard to imagine Fox not being happy with that.
But say another million OC watchers don't tune in for whatever reason, that would drop it into the 20s. Of course it would still a) add viewers to the OC lead in, and b) be better ratings than what Point Pleasant is getting. Is Fox happy then? That's the wild card in the whole scenario: what are the network's hopes/expectations for the show, and how much institutional support are they willing to give it to see that it meets them? If it's an immediate hit it will be kept around whether the network PTBs believe in it or not. If it needs the opportunity to "find an audience" then the network's support is indispensable. Here's hoping it gets it.
I always resort to food comparisons, and CSI has the sort of salty reliability of a bowl of chicken soup. It's fulfilling and familiar, but given the choice between that and a rich slab of prime rib...
Funny that you use that analogy given my earlier reference to last year's election. It made me think of this Times Magazine article from last fall comparing two restaurants in New Martinsville, WV. Will Fox be happy with a Baristas or does it want a franchise to rival Bob Evans/CSI?